IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v8y2017i1d10.1038_s41467-017-01792-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Frances C. Moore

    (University of California Davis)

  • Uris Baldos

    (Purdue University
    Purdue University)

  • Thomas Hertel

    (Purdue University
    Purdue University
    Purdue Climate Change Research Center)

  • Delavane Diaz

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton−1 CO2 to net costs of $8.5 ton−1, leading the total SCC to more than double.

Suggested Citation

  • Frances C. Moore & Uris Baldos & Thomas Hertel & Delavane Diaz, 2017. "New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-01792-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01792-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 885-920.
    2. Demarchi, Gabriela & Subervie, Julie & Leite, Fernando Palha & Laclau, Jean-Paul, 2021. "Farmers' preferences for water-saving strategies in Brazilian eucalypt plantations," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Pechan, Paul M. & Bohle, Heidi & Obster, Fabian, 2023. "Reducing vulnerability of fruit orchards to climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Kotz, Maximilian & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2023. "The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes," Working Paper Series 2821, European Central Bank.
    5. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    6. Ma, Shimeng & Ritsema, Coen J. & Wang, Sufen, 2024. "Achieving sustainable crop management: A holistic approach to crop competitiveness assessment and structure optimization with dual natural-social environmental impacts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Katherine Calvin & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon S. Kheshgi & Abigail C. Snyder & Pralit Patel & Marshall Wise & Leon E. Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2020. "Global Market And Economic Welfare Implications Of Changes In Agricultural Yields Due To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Qu, Yang & Swales, J. Kim & Hooper, Tara & Austen, Melanie C. & Wang, Xinhao & Papathanasopoulou, Eleni & Huang, Junling & Yan, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Economic trade-offs in marine resource use between offshore wind farms and fisheries in Scottish waters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Philip Meyer, 2023. "Comment on ‘Climate sensitivity, agricultural productivity and the social cost of carbon in FUND’," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(2), pages 285-290, April.
    10. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    11. Cui, Xiaomeng & Gafarov, Bulat & Ghanem, Dalia & Kuffner, Todd, 2024. "On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    12. Taoyuan Wei & H. Asbjørn Aaheim, 2021. "Economic Damage of Climate Change: How Far is it From the Physical Damage?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 5, pages 115-135, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlík & Tamás Krisztin & Justin Baker & Stefan Frank & Tomoko Hasegawa & David Leclère & Sara Ohrel & Shaun Ragnauth & Erwin Schmid & Hugo Valin & Nicole Van Lipzig & Miet M, 2020. "Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 829-835, September.
    14. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho & Ike Sari Astuti & Purwanto Purwanto & Ifan Deffinika & Imam Abdul Gani Alfarizi & Hetty Rahmawati Sucahyo & Randhiki Gusti & Mochammad Tri Herwanto & Gilang Aulia Herlambang, 2023. "Assessing long-term rainfall trends and changes in a tropical watershed Brantas, Indonesia: an approach for quantifying the agreement among satellite-based rainfall data, ground rainfall data, and sma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2835-2862, July.
    16. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Long, Zi & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Ocean salinity, early-life health, and adaptation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "Kernel density decomposition with an application to the social cost of carbon," Working Paper Series 0720, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "CEEEA2.0 model: A dynamic CGE model for energy-environment-economy analysis with available data and code," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    21. Thomas Knoke & Nick Hanley & Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta & Ben Groom & Frank Venmans & Carola Paul, 2023. "Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1373-1384, November.
    22. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    23. Zappalà, Guglielmo, 2024. "Adapting to climate change accounting for individual beliefs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    24. Xu, Xin & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Jia, Nanfei & Qi, Yajie, 2024. "Measurement of daily climate physical risks and climate transition risks faced by China's energy sector stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 625-640.
    25. Kevin Dayaratna & Ross McKitrick, 2023. "Reply to comment on “climate sensitivity, agricultural productivity and the social cost of carbon in fund” by Philip Meyer," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(2), pages 291-298, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-01792-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.