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Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages

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  • Shideed, Kamil H.
  • White, Fred C.

Abstract

The consequences of frequently used price expectation models are analyzed by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn and soybean acreages to six alternative formulations. The trade-off between bias and variance associated with these forecasts is investigated. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32351
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01), July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
    2. Meilke, Karl D. & Weersink, Alfons, 1991. "An Analysis of the Effects of Government Payments to Grain and Oilseeds Producers on Cropping Decisions," Working Papers 244081, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    3. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Anthony Becker & Rebecca Judge, 2014. "Evidence of Distortionary Effects of Decoupled Payments in U.S. Indica Rice Production," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(3), pages 265-275, September.
    5. David Ubilava, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean‐to‐Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 29-41, January.
    6. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Womack, Abner W., 1992. "Regional Acreage Response For U.S. Corn And Wheat: The Effects Of Government Programs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
    7. McIntosh, Christopher S. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1994. "Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, January.
    8. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), December.
    9. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    10. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 AAAE Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    11. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Working Papers JRC108693, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    12. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Crop Production/Industries;

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