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An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes


  • Orazem, Peter
  • Miranowski, John


This paper develops an empirical strategy for testi ng competing hypotheses of expectation regimes when direct measures of expectati ons are unavailable. The procedure takes as given an assumed structural relation ship between expected values of exogeneous variables and a given decision variab le. By imposing different expectation regimes on this model, the authors obtain an artificial nesting of the hypothesized regimes which allows us to test whethe r any specification dominates. This methodology is extended to multipleequation applications with any number of hypothesized expectation regimes. The tests are illustrated using a model of the response of county-level farm acreage allocati on to expected commodity prices. Copyright 1986 by MIT Press.

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  • Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-609, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:68:y:1986:i:4:p:603-09

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Farber, Henry S & Bazerman, Max H, 1986. "The General Basis of Arbitrator Behavior: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional and Final-Offer Arbitration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 819-844, July.
    2. Max H. Bazerman, 1985. "Norms of Distributive Justice in Interest Arbitration," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 38(4), pages 558-570, July.
    3. Orley Ashenfelter, 1985. "Evidence on US Experiences with Dispute Resolution Systems," Working Papers 565, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Farber, Henry S & Bazerman, Max H, 1986. "The General Basis of Arbitrator Behavior: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional and Final-Offer Arbitration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1503-1528, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanchirico, James & Newell, Richard & Papps, Kerry, 2005. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets for Fishing Quotas," Discussion Papers dp-05-46, Resources For the Future.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    4. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), October.
    5. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), December.
    6. Newell, Richard G. & Sanchirico, James N. & Kerr, Suzi, 2005. "Fishing quota markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 437-462, May.
    7. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(02), December.
    8. Krishna Paudel & Christopher McIntosh, 2005. "Numeraire choice in agricultural supply analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1209-1214.
    9. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    10. McIntosh, Christopher S. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1994. "Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, January.
    11. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
    12. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    13. Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, 2007. "Composite price expectations: An empirical analysis for the Spanish horticultural sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 57-83.

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