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COVID-19 Fiscal Support and Its Effectiveness

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Chudik

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, USA)

  • Kamiar Mohaddes

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Mehdi Raissi

    (International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA)

Abstract

This paper uses a threshold-augmented Global VAR model to quantify the macro-economic effects of countries’ discretionary fiscal actions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Our results are threefold: (1) fiscal policy is playing a key role in mitigating the effects of the pandemic; (2) all else equal, countries that implemented larger fiscal support are expected to experience less output contractions; (3) emerging markets are also benefiting from the synchronized fiscal actions globally through the spillover channel and reduced financial market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "COVID-19 Fiscal Support and Its Effectiveness," Working Papers 1465, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1465
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    Cited by:

    1. Brownbridge,Martin & Canagarajah,Roy S., 2021. "The Scarring and Hysteresis Effects of Steep Recessions and the Implications for Fiscal Policy in ECA Transition EMDEs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9682, The World Bank.
    2. Lukas Rudolph & Sarah Gomm, 2024. "How does an economic shock affect environmental attitudes, preferences and issue importance? Evidence from Switzerland," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Lucas Rosso & Rodrigo Wagner, 2024. "How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 841-855, June.
    4. Riccardo Tilli & Paolo D'Imperio & Cristiana Fiorelli, 2023. "Fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the euro area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 366-372.
    5. Athanasios Anastasiou & Nicholas Apergis & Athina Zervoyianni, 2024. "Pandemic, sentiments over COVID-19, and EU convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1683-1707, April.
    6. Kim, Jihee & Lee, Susang, 2024. "Can stimulus checks to households save the local economy? The impact of South Korea’s COVID-19 stimulus on small business sales," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 159-176.
    7. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2024. "Understanding How Job Retention Schemes Reshape the Within-Occupation Skill Profile of Employees within Firms," Working Papers 2024/02, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Hanmin Dong & Xiujie Tan & Si Cheng & Yishuang Liu, 2023. "COVID-19, recovery policies and the resilience of EU ETS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 2965-2991, October.
    9. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2023. "Did Job Retention Schemes Save Jobs during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Firm-level Evidence from Latvia," Working Papers 2023/03, Latvijas Banka.
    12. Bogdan Muraraşu & Cristina Anghelescu & Robert Adrian Grecu, 2023. "Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1627-1654, October.
    13. Degryse, Hans & Huylebroek, Cédric, 2023. "Fiscal support and banks’ loan loss provisions during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Marsh, W. Blake, 2023. "Supervisory stringency, payout restrictions, and bank equity prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "Global evidence of the COVID-19 shock on real equity prices and real exchange rates: A counterfactual analysis with a threshold-augmented GVAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    16. Evi Pappa & Andrey Ramos & Eugenia Vella, 2024. "Which Crisis Support Fiscal Measures Worked During the Covid-19 Shock in Europe?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 327-348, December.
    17. Swarnali Ahmed Hannan & Keiko Honjo & Mehdi Raiss, 2022. "Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 175-190.
    18. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8qt1t3t4, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    19. Víctor Manuel Cuevas Ahumada & Cuauhtémoc Calderón Villarreal, 2023. "Government policies and manufacturing production during the COVID-19 pandemic," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, Octubre -.
    20. Yang Yu & Fan Zhang & Kofi Asamoah Adu-Poku & Desmond Appiah, 2024. "4-Years into the Pandemic Impacts: A Holistic Reflection and Educational Lessons Learnt in the Tourism and Agriculture Sectors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-41, December.
    21. Sariyer, Gorkem & Kahraman, Serpil & Sözen, Mert Erkan & Ataman, Mustafa Gokalp, 2023. "Fiscal responses to COVID-19 outbreak for healthy economies: Modelling with big data analytics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 191-198.
    22. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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