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Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
  • Keiko Honjo
  • Mehdi Raiss

Abstract

Mexico's fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities' desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, resulted in a more severe recession in 2020 and a weaker economic recovery, notwithstanding spillovers from the United States. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront—including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets—would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline. O54

Suggested Citation

  • Swarnali Ahmed Hannan & Keiko Honjo & Mehdi Raiss, 2022. "Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 175-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2022-q2-169-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Espino, Emilio César & Kozlowski, Julian & Martin, Fernando M. & Sánchez, Juan M., 2025. "Policy rules and large crises in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Julie Ann Q. Basconcillo, 2023. "A nexus between fiscal policy and inflation: a case study of Indonesia using SVAR model," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 477-503.
    3. Buffie, Edward F. & Adam, Christopher & Zanna, Luis-Felipe & Kpodar, Kangni, 2023. "Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz & Nancy Ivonne Muller Durán & Josué Zavaleta González, 2021. "Public Deficits in USMCA Economies During the COVID-19 Economic Crisis," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, Julio - S.
    5. André, Marine C. & Armijo, Alberto & Espidio, Sebastián Medina & Sandoval, Jamel, 2023. "Policy mix in a small open emerging economy with commodity prices," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    6. Bai, Chenjiang & Duan, Yuejiao & Liu, Congya & Qiu, Leiju, 2022. "International taxation sentiment and COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Osuna Gómez Daniel, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Post-Great Recession Formal Entrants: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2022-19, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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