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Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Edward F Buffie
  • Mr. Christopher S Adam
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna
  • Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Abstract

We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact over the medium-run of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analyses suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, 2022. "Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2022/025, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/025
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruhul Amin & Nahian Rahman & Samira Tasnim & Sima Rani Dey & Mohammad Tareque, 2024. "The Impact of the Stimulus Packages on the Economy during COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A Mixed-Method Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, May.
    2. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Oseni, Gbemisola & Abanokova, Kseniya, 2025. "Educational inequalities during COVID-19: Results from longitudinal surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Ahmed Dirie, Khadar & Maamor, Selamah & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2024. "Impacts of climate change in post-conflict Somalia: Is the 2030 Agenda for SDGs endangered?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    4. Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De & Cojocaru,Alexandru & Montalva Talledo,Veronica Sonia & Narayan,Ambar, 2023. "COVID-19 School Closures, Learning Losses and Intergenerational Mobility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10381, The World Bank.
    5. Buffie, Edward F. & Adam, Christopher & Zanna, Luis-Felipe & Kpodar, Kangni, 2023. "Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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