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Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

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  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • M. Hashem Pesaran

Abstract

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around 4 quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the US economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946.2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1640, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:6:id:1168:p:649-668 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?," Working Papers 1106, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Aug 2000.
    3. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:289-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    6. Nida Çakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, October.
    8. Cakir Melek, Nida & Plante, Michael D. & Yucel, Mine K., 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 04 Sep 2017.
    9. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:82-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:3:p:297-314 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ecolet:v:155:y:2017:i:c:p:84-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-399.
    13. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    15. repec:eee:enepol:v:118:y:2018:i:c:p:552-558 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
    17. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2017. "Explaining the time-varying effects of oil market shocks on US stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 84-88.
    18. repec:eee:finana:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:148-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Amany El-Anshasy & Kamiar Mohaddes & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2015. "Oil, Volatility and Institutions:Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1523, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "US shale oil and the behaviour of commodity prices," Working Papers 047, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    21. repec:eee:energy:v:149:y:2018:i:c:p:424-437 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Walid Bahloul & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News Surprises and Uncertainty of Major Economies on Returns and Volatility of Oil Futures," Working Papers 201715, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; equity prices; dividends; economic growth; oil supply; global oil markets; and international business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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