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Oil price shocks and global imbalances: lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies

Author

Listed:
  • Audrey Allegret Sallenave

    (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valerie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks' effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and financial interdependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30 oil-exporting and importing economies over the 1980-2011period, wefindthatthenatureoftheshock—demand-drivenorsupply-driven— matters in understanding the effects of oil price shocks on global imbalances. In addition, we show that the main adjustment mechanism to oil shocks is based on the trade channel, the valuation channel being at play only on the short run.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Audrey Allegret Sallenave & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valerie Mignon, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Post-Print hal-03572504, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03572504
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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