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The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach

Author

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  • Zubarev, A.

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

  • Rybak, K.

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

In this study, we estimate the contribution of global demand, supply and commodity shocks to the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables. The main tool used in this work is a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) that allows extracting global factors from a wide range of variables. Recursive and sign restrictions are used to identify global shocks. Russian economy is represented by a large set of informational series aggregated into a small number of factors. FAVAR approach allows for extended inference on the reaction of Russian macroeconomic variables to global shocks. Impulse response function analysis shows that Russian economy is affected by all three specified global shocks and forecast error decompositions indicate that those shocks account for nearly 80 percent of key variables dynamics. We also showed that global demand and global commodity shocks were more crucial compared to the third type of shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2022:i:56:p:48-68
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin S. Rybak, 2023. "Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-23, December.
    2. Konstantin S. Rybak, 2023. "Evaluating the Role of Global Factors in GDP Nowcasting [Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-23, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand shock; supply shock; commodity shock; FAVAR; Russian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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