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The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects

Author

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Julia Zhulanova

Abstract

We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) over time. We identify these spillovers using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with both state level and country level data. In contrast to previous results, we find considerable changes in the way oil price shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy: there are now positive spillovers to non-oil investment, employment and production from an increase in the oil price - effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," CAMA Working Papers 2019-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-59
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bpj:ajlecn:v:10:y:2019:i:2:p:13:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shale oil boom; Oil Prices; Time-varying factor-augmented VAR model; Spillovers; Geographical Dispersion;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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