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Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels

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  • Ludovic Gauvin
  • Cyril Rebillard

Abstract

China’s rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China’s growth model are rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact other countries, with a focus on trade and commodity price channels. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario – historical rebalancing precedents, overinvestment, unsustainable debt trends, and a growing real estate bubble – we focus on a sample of 36 countries, and use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil markets separately to account for their different end-use patterns and consumption intensity in China, and we identify three specific transmission channels to net commodity exporters: through real exports, through income effects (related to commodity prices), and through investment (a fall in commodity prices reducing incentives to invest in the mining and energy sectors); we also look at the role played by the exchange rate as a shock absorber. According to our estimates, emerging economies (ex. China) would be hardest hit – with a 7.5 percent cumulated growth loss after five years –, in particular in South-East Asia but also in commodity-exporting regions such as Latin America; advanced economies would be less affected. The "growth gap" between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril Rebillard, 2015. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2015-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Christina Kolerus & Papa M N'Diaye & Christian Saborowski, 2016. "China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets," IMF Spillover Notes 16/06, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alessandro Borin & Enrica Di Stefano, 2016. "Economic reforms in China and India: past and future challenges," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 337, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    4. Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo, 2017. "The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-22.
    5. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    6. repec:eee:asieco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:36-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zhai, Fan & Morgan, Peter, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 560, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Arpita Chatterjee & Richa Saraf, 2017. "Impact of China on World Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters," Discussion Papers 2017-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. K. Buysse & E. Vincent, 2015. "Factors explaining emerging economies’ growth slowdown," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-79, september.
    11. Bertrand Gruss, 2014. "After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 14/154, International Monetary Fund.
    12. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    13. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    14. World Bank Group, 2016. "Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 23680, October.
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    17. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies," Discussion papers 17009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. World Bank Group, 2016. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 23435, October.
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    20. Ghoshray, Atanu & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "The Impact of a People’s Republic of China Slowdown on Commodity Prices and Detecting the Asymmetric Responses of Economic Activity in Asian Countries to Commodity Price Shocks," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 493, Asian Development Bank.
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    22. Shakill Hassan & Merrisa Paul & Siobhan Redford, 2015. "Working Paper – WP/15/04- Vulnerability to Normalization of Global Financing Conditions- An Operational Approach," Working Papers 6941, South African Reserve Bank.
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    Keywords

    China; hard landing; spillovers; global VAR; conditional forecast; commodities; recoupling.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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