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Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling

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  • Levy Yeyati, Eduardo
  • Williams, Tomas

Abstract

The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized selloff during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for EM, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies yield no conclusive result, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds show that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.

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  • Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Williams, Tomas, 2012. "Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2102-2126.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:8:p:2102-2126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings," CSEF Working Papers 487, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9469-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Changmo Ahn & Gyemin Lee & Dongkoo Chang, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis and Transmission Channels: An International Network Analysis," Working Papers wp07, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    4. repec:kir:journl:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:11-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1361-:d:143546 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers 2017-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Trancoso, Tiago, 2014. "Emerging markets in the global economic network: Real(ly) decoupling?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 499-510.
    9. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    10. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    11. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    13. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
    14. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2016. "Institutional investment, equity volume and volatility spillover: Causalities and asymmetries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-20.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Dekle, Robert & Lothian, James R., 2012. "Overview of the special issue on “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis”," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1971-1975.
    16. Antoniades, Andreas, 2015. "The New Resilience of Emerging and Developing Countries: Systemic Interlocking, Currency Swaps and Geoeconomics," MPRA Paper 68181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    18. Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2015. "Emerging Market Portfolio Flows; The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors," IMF Working Papers 15/263, International Monetary Fund.
    19. repec:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0367-x is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Tomas Williams & Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, "undated". "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2018-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    21. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i:2:p:170-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    23. Narayan, Seema & Doytch, Nadia & Nguyen, Tri Tung & Kluegel, Karl, 2016. "Trade of goods and services and risk sharing ability in international equity markets: Are these substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 485-503.
    24. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30, january-d.
    25. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

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