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Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

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  • Mr. Paulo Drummond
  • Miss Estelle X Liu

Abstract

The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paulo Drummond & Miss Estelle X Liu, 2013. "Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?," IMF Working Papers 2013/250, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/250
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/267, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Yongzhen Yu, 2011. "Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/086, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mary-Françoise Renard, 2011. "Working Paper 126 - China’s Trade and FDI in Africa," Working Paper Series 297, African Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Zuzana Brixiova & Qingwei Meng & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 16(3), pages 141-162, July.
    4. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    5. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    6. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oumar Diallo & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2016. "Rising BRIC and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 260-284, February.
    8. Yýlmaz Akyüz, 2014. "Crisis Mismanagement in The United States And Europe: Impact On Developing Countries And Longer-Term Consequences," Working Papers 2014/3, Turkish Economic Association.
    9. Ajay Chhibber, 2017. "China's One Belt One Road Strategy: The New Financial Institutions and India’s Options," Working Papers 2017-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Meng Qingwei, 2014. "Working Paper 198 - Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," Working Paper Series 2104, African Development Bank.
    11. Boureima Sawadogo & Tegawende Juliette Nana & Maimouna Hama Natama & Fidèle Bama & Emma Tapsoba & Kassoum Zerbo, 2015. "Impact de l'expansion économique et commerciale de la Chine sur la croissance et l'emploi au Burkina Faso: une analyse en équilibre général calculable," Working Papers MPIA 2015-03, PEP-MPIA.
    12. Oumar Diallo & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns," IMF Working Papers 2014/035, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Nihal Bayraktar, 2017. "Impacts Of Africa'S Total And Commodity-Based Trade With China And Oecd Countries†," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 95-113.
    14. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2014. "Internationalization of Finance and Changing Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 217, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    15. Kinfack, Emilie & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: Analysis of Trade between African Economies and their Main Trading partners," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 275-306.
    16. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    17. Carlos Casanova & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Le Xia & Joaquín Iglesias, 2017. "Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data," Working Papers 17/13, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    18. Anan Wiranto & Nia Yustiana, 2019. "China’s Economic Spillover to ASEAN-6 Economies: Before and After Renminbi Internationalization," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(4), pages 240-256.
    19. Boureima Sawadogo & T gawend Juliette Nana & Maimouna Hama Natama & Fid le Bama & Emma Tapsoba & Kassoum Zerbo, 2020. "Impact of Economic and Trade Expansion of China on Employment and Household Welfare in Burkina Faso: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 139-153.
    20. Dong, Yan & Fan, Cijun, 2017. "The effects of China's aid and trade on its ODI in African countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-18.
    21. Cosmas S. Mbogela, 2018. "Determinants of Africa - BRIC Countries Bilateral Trade Flows," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 40-53.
    22. Matthias Busse & Ceren Erdogan & Henning Mühlen, 2016. "China's Impact on Africa – The Role of Trade, FDI and Aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 228-262, May.
    23. Robert Mullings & Aruneema Mahabir, 2016. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2016/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

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