IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rau/journl/v10y2015i2p87-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment-Led Development In China – From Past Accomplishments, To Future Challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Sarmiza Pencea
  • Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai

Abstract

For over three decades, investment-driven development has generated great results in Chinese catching-up endeavour. China is now second only to the USA among the world’s largest economies, it ranks the first manufacturer and the top exporter and importer of goods globally, is the second most important destination for global investments, and it dominates many of the world’s markets. At the same time, following for too long a high investment rate development path, China has evolved into a highly unbalanced economy, that has accumulated vulnerabilities and distortions which signal that its investment-led development model is no longer sustainable, posing the economy to considerable risks. It, therefore, needs to be changed. Against this backdrop, the main questions we are trying to answer to in this paper are: first, if no longer relying so heavily on investments is a feasible development for China in the near to medium-term future, and secondly, what could be the expected impact of the Chinese investment wane on the other actors on the global stage. To this end, we will use the most recent data and statistics, as well as the accumulated knowledge on the subject from the scientific investigations carried out by other researchers, both westerners and Chinese, trying to push further our own previous research findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarmiza Pencea & Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai, 2015. "Investment-Led Development In China – From Past Accomplishments, To Future Challenges," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 10(2), pages 87-102, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:87-102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rebe.rau.ro/RePEc/rau/journl/SU15/REBE-SU15-A7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai, 2014. "Comments regarding China's Influence on the International Metal Markets," Revista de Economie Mondiala / The Journal of Global Economics, Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy, vol. 6(3), September.
    2. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/267, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Joseph E. Stiglitz & Shahid Yusuf, 2001. "Rethinking the East Asian Miracle," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13969, December.
    4. World Bank & the People’s Republic of China Development Research Center of the State Council, 2013. "China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12925, December.
    5. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Mr. Murtaza H Syed & Mr. Liu Xueyan, 2012. "Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/277, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
    7. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2010. "Why Does China Invest So Much?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 87-117, Fall.
    8. Sarmiza Pencea, 2014. "From "Made in China" to "Invented in China"," Revista de Economie Mondiala / The Journal of Global Economics, Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy, vol. 6(1), March.
    9. Thomas I. Palley, 2005. "External Contradictions of the Chinese Development Model: Export-led Growth and the Dangers of Global Economic Contraction," Working Papers wp101, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    10. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley & Lillie Lam, 2013. "The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 72-84, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarmiza Pencea, 2015. "Chinese “New Norma” and Some of its External Outcomes," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 7(2), pages 31-37, June.
    2. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    3. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    4. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    5. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Mr. Murtaza H Syed & Mr. Liu Xueyan, 2013. "China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency," IMF Working Papers 2013/083, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    7. Sai Ding & John Knight & Xiao Zhang, 2019. "Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 489-507, April.
    8. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    9. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley & Lillie Lam, 2013. "The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 72-84, February.
    11. Ding Lu, 2011. "Transition of China’s growth pattern," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(4), pages 535-555, December.
    12. Jeannine Bailliu & Mark Kruger & Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn, 2016. "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030," Staff Working Papers 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    13. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Lv, Bingyang & Liu, Yongzheng & Li, Yan, 2020. "Fiscal incentives, competition, and investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "The Impending Long March of the Chinese Economy," MPRA Paper 73275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    17. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    18. Tang, Ya & Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2017. "China's investment and rate of return on capital revisited," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 12-25.
    19. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    20. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:87-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alex Tabusca (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferauro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.