IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/not/notgep/12-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms

Author

Listed:
  • Sai Ding
  • Alessandra Guariglia
  • John Knight

Abstract

This paper uses a dataset of more than 100,000 firms over the period of 2000-07 to assess whether and why Chinese firms overinvest. We find that corporate investment in China has become increasingly efficient over time, which suggests that overinvestment has been declining. However, within all ownership categories, we find evidence indicating a degree of overinvestment by firms that invest more than the industry median. The free cash flow hypothesis provides a good explanation for China’s overinvestment in the collective and private sectors, whereas in the state sector, overinvestment is attributable to the poor screening and monitoring of enterprises by banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sai Ding & Alessandra Guariglia & John Knight, "undated". "Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms," Discussion Papers 12/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  • Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:12/04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/papers/2012/12-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Song, Lina, 2011. "Internal finance and growth: Microeconometric evidence on Chinese firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 79-94, September.
    2. Sai Ding & John Knight, 2011. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capital Formation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 141-174, April.
    3. David Dollar & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Das (Wasted) Kapital; Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China," IMF Working Papers 07/9, International Monetary Fund.
    4. S.K. Bhutani, 2009. "China and India," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 65(4), pages 383-391, October.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Stephen Bond & Julie Ann Elston & Jacques Mairesse & Benoît Mulkay, 2003. "Financial Factors and Investment in Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom: A Comparison Using Company Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 153-165, February.
    8. Nickell, Stephen & Nicolitsas, Daphne, 1999. "How does financial pressure affect firms?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1435-1456, August.
    9. Servaes, Henri, 1994. "Do Takeover Targets Overinvest?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 253-277.
    10. Xia, Jun & Li, Shaomin & Long, Cheryl, 2009. "The Transformation of Collectively Owned Enterprises and its Outcomes in China, 2001-05," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1651-1662, October.
    11. Sai Ding & Alessandra Guariglia & John Knight, "undated". "Negative investment in China: financing constraints and restructuring versus growth," Discussion Papers 12/01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    12. Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "Estimation in dynamic panel data models: improving on the performance of the standard GMM estimator," IFS Working Papers W00/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Wong, Sonia M.L., 2008. "Leverage and investment under a state-owned bank lending environment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 642-653, December.
    14. repec:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:06:p:1831-1863_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2009. "Why has the investment-cash flow sensitivity declined so sharply? Rising R&D and equity market developments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 971-984, May.
    16. Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 115-143.
    18. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    19. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    20. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 94-105.
    22. Ding, Sai & Guariglia, Alessandra & Knight, John, 2013. "Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1490-1507.
    23. Jun, Zhang, 2003. "Investment, investment efficiency, and economic growth in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 713-734, October.
    24. Hendershott, Robert J., 1996. "Which Takeover Targets Overinvest?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 563-580, December.
    25. Lang, Larry & Ofek, Eli & Stulz, Rene M., 1996. "Leverage, investment, and firm growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-29, January.
    26. Carpenter, Robert E. & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1894-1906, September.
    27. D'Mello, Ranjan & Miranda, Mercedes, 2010. "Long-term debt and overinvestment agency problem," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 324-335, February.
    28. Shaomin Li, 2004. "The Puzzle of Firm Performance in China: An Institutional Explanation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 47-68, March.
    29. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    30. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2010. "Why Does China Invest So Much?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 87-117, Fall.
    31. Becker Bo & Sivadasan Jagadeesh, 2010. "The Effect of Financial Development on the Investment-Cash Flow Relationship: Cross-Country Evidence from Europe," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-49, May.
    32. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65 Elsevier.
    33. Andrew Benito & Ignacio Hernando, 2007. "Firm Behaviour And Financial Pressure: Evidence From Spanish Panel Data," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 283-311, October.
    34. Chen, Shimin & Sun, Zheng & Tang, Song & Wu, Donghui, 2011. "Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 259-271, April.
    35. Guariglia, Alessandra, 2008. "Internal financial constraints, external financial constraints, and investment choice: Evidence from a panel of UK firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1795-1809, September.
    36. Wei, Zuobao & Xie, Feixue & Zhang, Shaorong, 2005. "Ownership Structure and Firm Value in China's Privatized Firms: 1991–2001," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 87-108, March.
    37. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    38. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Li-An, 2008. "Political connections, financing and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 283-299, October.
    39. Ahn, Seoungpil & Denis, David J. & Denis, Diane K., 2006. "Leverage and investment in diversified firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 317-337, February.
    40. James Riedel & Jing Jin & Jian Gao, 2007. "Overview of Economic Reforms and Outcomes, from How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform," Introductory Chapters,in: How China Grows: Investment, Finance, and Reform Princeton University Press.
    41. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    42. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
    43. Rawski, Thomas G., 2002. "Will investment behavior constrain China's growth?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 361-372, December.
    44. Konings, Jozef & Rizov, Marian & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2003. "Investment and financial constraints in transition economies: micro evidence from Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 253-258, February.
    45. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    46. Andrew Benito, 2005. "Financial Pressure, Monetary Policy Effects and Inventories: Firm-level Evidence from a Market-based and a Bank-based Financial System," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(286), pages 201-224, May.
    47. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, January.
    48. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Ge, Ying & Qiu, Jiaping, 2005. "The impact of leverage on firm investment: Canadian evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 277-291, March.
    49. Thomas W. Bates, 2005. "Asset Sales, Investment Opportunities, and the Use of Proceeds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 105-135, February.
    50. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Tan, Justin & Li, Shaomin & Xia, Jun, 2007. "When iron fist, visible hand, and invisible hand meet: Firm-level effects of varying institutional environments in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 786-794, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Minjia & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2013. "Internal financial constraints and firm productivity in China: Do liquidity and export behavior make a difference?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1123-1140.
    2. Zhang, Dayong & Cao, Hong & Zou, Peijiang, 2016. "Exuberance in China's renewable energy investment: Rationality, capital structure and implications with firm level evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 468-478.
    3. Il Houng Lee & Murtaza H Syed & Liu Xueyan, 2012. "Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/277, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cao, Jerry & Julio, Brandon & Leng, Tiecheng & Zhou, Sili, 2016. "Political Turnover, Ownership, and Corporate Investment," RIEI Working Papers 2016-06, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overinvestment; Investment efficiency; Free cash flow; Leverage; China;

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notgep:12/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cgnotuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.