IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v73y2011i2p141-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capital Formation

Author

Listed:
  • Sai Ding
  • John Knight

Abstract

The paper estimates cross-province growth regressions for China over the period of economic reform. It first addresses the problem of model uncertainty by adopting two approaches to model selection, Bayesian Model Averaging and the automated General-to-Specific approach, to consider a wide range of candidate predictors of growth in China. The first-stage model selection results identify a role for conditional convergence, physical and human capital formation, population growth, degree of openness, and institutional change. Starting from this baseline equation, the growth impact of physical and human capital is examined in some detail using panel data system GMM. For instance, 'investment in innovation', foreign direct investment, and private investment are found to be particularly important. Secondary school enrolment contributes to growth, and higher education enrolment even more so. Finally, some illustrative counterfactual predictions are conducted to answer the question: why has China, as a whole, and indeed all its provinces, grown so fast?
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sai Ding & John Knight, 2011. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capital Formation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 141-174, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:73:y:2011:i:2:p:141-174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    2. Cai, Fang & Wang, Dewen & Du, Yang, 2002. "Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 197-212.
    3. Chen, Jian & Fleisher, Belton M., 1996. "Regional Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 141-164, April.
    4. Chris Chatfield, 1995. "Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(3), pages 419-444, May.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    6. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1995. "Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386706.
    8. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Shang-Jin Wei, 1995. "The Open Door Policy and China's Rapid Growth: Evidence from City-Level Data," NBER Chapters, in: Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience, pages 73-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    11. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    12. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    13. Martin Raiser, 1998. "Subsidising inequality: Economic reforms, fiscal transfers and convergence across Chinese provinces," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 1-26.
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 97-103, May.
    15. Chen, Baizhu & Feng, Yi, 2000. "Determinants of economic growth in China: Private enterprise, education, and openness," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15.
    16. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    17. Hong Li & Zinan Liu & Ivonia Rebelo, 1998. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-132, May.
    18. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    19. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Can the Augmented Solow Model Explain China's Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 380, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Steve Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2010. "Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1073-1099, November/.
    21. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
    22. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    23. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    24. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    25. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    26. Gustafsson,Björn A. & Shi,Li & Sicular,Terry (ed.), 2008. "Inequality and Public Policy in China," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521870450, May.
    27. P. Dorian Owen, 2003. "General‐to‐Specific Modelling Using PcGets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 609-628, September.
    28. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2007. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-42, January.
    29. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    30. Demurger, Sylvie, 2001. "Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-117, March.
    31. Li, Hong & Liu, Zinan & Rebelo, Ivonia, 1998. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2-3), pages 117-132.
    32. Hao, Chen, 2006. "Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 347-362.
    33. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1995. "Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_95-2, June.
    34. Scott, Maurice, 1993. "Explaining Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 421-425, May.
    35. Jones, Derek C. & Li, Cheng & Owen, Ann L., 2003. "Growth and regional inequality in China during the reform era," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 186-200.
    36. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    37. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    38. Shujie Yao, 2006. "On economic growth, FDI and exports in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 339-351.
    39. CHI, Wei, 2008. "The role of human capital in China's economic development: Review and new evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 421-436, September.
    40. Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    41. John Knight & Li Shi, 1999. "Fiscal decentralization: Incentives, redistribution and reform in China," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 5-32.
    42. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    43. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507.
    44. David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    45. Gemmell, Norman, 1996. "Evaluating the Impacts of Human Capital Stocks and Accumulation on Economic Growth: Some New Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(1), pages 9-28, February.
    46. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    47. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    48. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
    49. Beata S. Javorcik, 2008. "Can Survey Evidence Shed Light on Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 23(2), pages 139-159, June.
    50. Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
    51. Alessandra Guariglia & Sandra Poncet, 2006. "Are Financial Distortions an Impediment to Economic Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2006-21, CEPII research center.
    52. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
    53. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    54. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Ding, Sai & Knight, John, 2009. "Can the augmented Solow model explain China's remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 432-452, September.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    6. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    7. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992 - 2008)," PSE Working Papers halshs-00667467, HAL.
    8. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    9. Johanna Vogel, 2015. "The two faces of R&D and human capital: Evidence from Western European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 525-551, August.
    10. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    11. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    12. Li, Hongbin & Yang, Zheyu & Yao, Xianguo & Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Junsen, 2012. "Entrepreneurship, private economy and growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 948-961.
    13. Hartwig, Jochen, 2014. "Testing the Uzawa–Lucas model with OECD data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 144-156.
    14. Zhang, Chuanguo & Zhuang, Lihuan, 2011. "The composition of human capital and economic growth: Evidence from China using dynamic panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 165-171, March.
    15. R Burger & S du Plessis, 2011. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 21-47, December.
    16. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    17. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Hartwig, Jochen, 2012. "Testing the growth effects of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 11-24.
    19. Stephen Dobson & Carlyn Ramlogan & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Why Do Rates Of Β‐Convergence Differ? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 153-173, May.
    20. Rui HAO & Zheng WEI, 2009. "Sources Of Income Differences Across Chinese Provinces During The Reform Period: A Development Accounting Exercise," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:73:y:2011:i:2:p:141-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.