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The Impending Long March of the Chinese Economy

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  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

The Chinese economy is currently faced with the difficult problems of slowing economic growth and huge overcapacity. China is struggling to adapt to a “new normal.” Here, I examine the mechanism of why China is faced with these problems and some potential future paths of the Chinese economy. China does not have a socialist, socialist market, or market-oriented economy. Rather, it has a “state-driven economy” and that has deviated far from the saddle path to the steady state. The model of a state-driven economy constructed in this paper indicates that it is highly likely that China will proceed along a long-running transition path with low or no growth, but it is also very likely that China will excessively build up its military.

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "The Impending Long March of the Chinese Economy," MPRA Paper 73275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Chinese economy; Transition; Economic growth; Overcapacity; Pareto inefficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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