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Time Preference Shocks

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  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

The rate of time preference (RTP) has traditionally not been regarded as an important source of economic fluctuations. In this paper, I show that it is an important factor influencing economic fluctuations because households must have an expected RTP for the representative household (RTP RH) to behave optimally. Because it is impossible for a household to know the intrinsic RTP RH, it cannot know the parameters of the structural model of the RTP RH. Without a structural model, a household must use its beliefs to generate an expected RTP RH. As a result, the expected value can change more frequently than the intrinsic RTP RH. Because households often change their beliefs about their expected future paths, economic fluctuations caused by time preference shocks also can occur more frequently in an economy than previously thought.

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  • Harashima, Taiji, 2014. "Time Preference Shocks," MPRA Paper 60205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Parkin, Michael, 1988. "A method for determining whether parameters in aggregative models are structural," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 215-252, January.
    3. Harashima, Taiji, 2014. "The Representative Household Assumption Requires sustainable Heterogeneity in Dynamic Models," MPRA Paper 57520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Harashima, Taiji, 2010. "Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population," MPRA Paper 22521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1990. "Intertemporal dependence, impatience, and dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 45-75, August.
    8. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan," Macroeconomics 0402015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2004.
    9. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    10. Epstein, Larry G & Hynes, J Allan, 1983. "The Rate of Time Preference and Dynamic Economic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 611-635, August.
    11. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
    12. Das, Mausumi, 2003. "Optimal growth with decreasing marginal impatience," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1881-1898, August.
    13. Harashima, Taiji, 2012. "Sustainable Heterogeneity as the Unique Socially Optimal Allocation for Almost All Social Welfare Functions," MPRA Paper 40938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Robert A. Becker, 1980. "On the Long-Run Steady State in a Simple Dynamic Model of Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Households," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(2), pages 375-382.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Bubbles and Bluffs: Risk Lovers Can Survive Economically," MPRA Paper 83615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2016. "A Theory Of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced By A Central Bank?," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 98-145.
    3. Harashima, Taiji, 2017. "Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?," MPRA Paper 78053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "The Cause of the Great Recession: What Caused the Downward Shift of the GDP Trend in the United States?," MPRA Paper 69215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Harashima, Taiji, 2015. "Bubbles, Bluffs, and Greed," MPRA Paper 64361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Harashima, Taiji, 2022. "A Household’s Preferences Vary Depending on Whether Incomes Are Permanent or Temporary: A Solution to the Time-Inconsistency Problem and Equity-Premium Puzzle," MPRA Paper 114762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "The Correlation between Time Preference and Incomes Is Spurious: They Are Bridged by Fluid Intelligence," MPRA Paper 96756, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time preference; Economic fluctuations; Business cycles; The representative household; Sustainable heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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