IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects

Listed author(s):
  • Andrea Fracasso

    ()

The Chinese growth model has generated domestic imbalances and social problems. The Chinese leadership is aware of the urgency to address these problems and improve the quality of the growth process. Engineering a successful change (ensuring more even distribution of national income, as well as a rebalancing of the economy away from exports and investment and towards domestic consumption), however, is politically and economically difficult as it may be associated with a slow-down in the rate of growth and the Communist Party's prerogatives. The Japanese experience can help to interpret the current state of China and several insights can be drawn. Japan had to change its growth strategy while preserving high GDP growth at least three times in the past: at the end of the 1960s, when the mobilization of surplus labour was completed; in the mid-1980s, when Japan faced a dramatic appreciation of the yen and liberalized financial flows, moving the economy away from exports; in the 1990s, after the burst of the real estate and stock exchange bubbles. This work addresses whether a parallel between present-China and Japan in the past can be meaningfully made. It considers a long time span for Japan to show that interesting insights can be drawn from various periods of its experience. Short of claiming that China and Japan can be juxtaposed, this contribution takes stock of the Japanese experience to inform the Chinese authorities and those interested in the Chinese economic development. A comparative approach may serve to identify the successful actions and reforms which contributed to make Japan an advanced country after only a few decades from the end of the Second World War and may help to avoid those mistakes that contributed to turn Japan into a stagnating economy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.unitn.it/files/download/27419/dem2015_07n.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Management in its series DEM Discussion Papers with number 2015/07.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2015
Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpem:2015/07
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Via Inama 5, 38100 Trento

Phone: +39-461-882201
Fax: +39-461-882222
Web page: http://www.unitn.it/economia

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Song, Lina, 2011. "Internal finance and growth: Microeconometric evidence on Chinese firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 79-94, September.
  2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  3. Holz, Carsten A., 2008. "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1665-1691, October.
  4. Yiping Huang & Xun Wang, 2011. "Does Financial Repression Inhibit or Facilitate Economic Growth? A Case Study of Chinese Reform Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73, pages 833-855, December.
  5. Imai, Hiroyuki, 2010. "Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa-Samuelson effect?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 174-185, April.
  6. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
  8. Loren Brandt & Trevor Tombe & Xiadong Zhu, 2013. "Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space, and Sectors in China," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58, January.
  9. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2011. "Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 611-625.
  10. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
  11. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1358-1379, September.
  12. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Liu, Ping & Wong, Sonia M.L., 2009. "Inside the black box: Bank credit allocation in China's private sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1144-1155, June.
  13. "Minami, Ryoshin", 1968. "The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 19(3), pages 220-229, July.
  14. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
  15. Knight, John & Ding, Sai, 2012. "China's Remarkable Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199698691.
  16. Il Houng Lee & Murtaza H Syed & Liu Xueyan, 2012. "Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/277, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Suqin Ge & Dennis Tao Yang, 2014. "Changes In China'S Wage Structure," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 300-336, April.
  18. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
  19. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Cull, Robert & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2005. "Institutions, ownership, and finance: the determinants of profit reinvestment among Chinese firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 117-146, July.
  21. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  22. Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011. "The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
  23. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
  24. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Bin, Peng, 2015. "Regional Disparity and Dynamic Development of China: a Multidimensional Index," MPRA Paper 61849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
  27. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
  28. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
  29. Bown, Chad P. & McCulloch, Rachel, 2009. "U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China trade conflict: Export growth, reciprocity, and the international trading system," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 669-687, November.
  30. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
  31. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2009. "Bretton Woods Ii Still Defines The International Monetary System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 297-311, August.
  32. Johansson, Anders C., 2012. "Financial Repression and China’s Economic Imbalances," Working Paper Series 2012-22, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  33. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China’s Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices, and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1720, CESifo Group Munich.
  34. Jia, Junxue & Guo, Qingwang & Zhang, Jing, 2014. "Fiscal decentralization and local expenditure policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 107-122.
  35. Ken Davies, 2013. "China Investment Policy: An Update," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2013/1, OECD Publishing.
  36. John B. Knight, 2014. "China as a Developmental State," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1335-1347, October.
  37. Ding, Sai & Guariglia, Alessandra & Knight, John, 2013. "Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1490-1507.
  38. Chang, Philip C. & Jia, Chunxin & Wang, Zhicheng, 2010. "Bank fund reallocation and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2753-2766, November.
  39. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
  40. Yiping Huang & Kunyu Tao, 2010. "Factor Market Distortion and the Current Account Surplus in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 1-36, Fall.
  41. Masahiko Aoki, 2013. "Historical sources of institutional trajectories in economic development: China, Japan and Korea compared," Chapters,in: Comparative Institutional Analysis, chapter 22, pages 439-469 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  42. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
  43. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
  44. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
  45. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism And The Learning By Doing Externality," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 324-335, August.
  46. Robert Dekle & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2010. "Whither Chinese Growth? A Sectoral Growth Accounting Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 487-498, August.
  47. Fang Cai, 2012. "The Coming Demographic Impact on China's Growth: The Age Factor in the Middle-Income Trap," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 95-111, Winter/Sp.
  48. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Marion, Nancy P., 2014. "The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," ADBI Working Papers 455, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  49. Nada Mora, 2008. "The Effect of Bank Credit on Asset Prices: Evidence from the Japanese Real Estate Boom during the 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 57-87, February.
  50. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy P. Marion, 2014. "The People’s Republic of China’s Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23966, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  51. Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 824-843, September.
  52. Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "Bank ownership and efficiency in China: What will happen in the world's largest nation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 113-130, January.
  53. Dale Jorgenson & Koji Nomura, 2007. "The Industry Origins of the US-Japan Productivity Gap," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 315-341.
  54. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
  55. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
  56. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2014. "Defying gravity: can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 5-44, January.
  57. Matthews, Kent & Zhang, Nina (Xu), 2010. "Bank productivity in China 1997-2007: Measurement and convergence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 617-628, December.
  58. Daniel Leigh, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 833-857, August.
  59. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Das, Dilip K., 1993. "The yen appreciation and the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 243-264, September.
  61. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, January.
  62. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, May.
  63. Ju, Jiandong & Yu, Xinding, 2015. "Productivity, profitability, production and export structures along the value chain in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 33-54.
  64. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  65. Fang Cai, 2012. "Is There a “Middle‐income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 49-61, January.
  66. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 427-431, May.
  67. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lu, Liping & Ongena, Steven, 2013. "Does banking competition alleviate or worsen credit constraints faced by small- and medium-sized enterprises? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3412-3424.
  68. Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China; A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 13/243, International Monetary Fund.
  69. Lu, Zhengfei & Zhu, Jigao & Zhang, Weining, 2012. "Bank discrimination, holding bank ownership, and economic consequences: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 341-354.
  70. Ito, Hiro, 2009. "U.S. current account debate with Japan then, with China now," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 294-313, May.
  71. Hamada, Koichi & Okada, Yasushi, 2009. "Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 200-219, June.
  72. Barth, Erling & Moene, Karl O. & Willumsen, Fredrik, 2014. "The Scandinavian model—An interpretation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 60-72.
  73. Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Ichiro Muto, 2012. "Rebalancing China's Economic Growth: Some Insights from Japan's Experience," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 62-82, January.
  74. Il Houng Lee & Murtaza H Syed & Liu Xueyan, 2013. "China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth; Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency," IMF Working Papers 13/83, International Monetary Fund.
  75. Koichi Hamada & Yasushi Okada, 2009. "Monetary and International Factors behind Japan's Lost Decade," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo Group Munich.
  77. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
  78. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley & Lillie Lam, 2013. "The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 72-84, February.
  79. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
  80. Du, Jun & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Zhou, Ying, 2014. "State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 459-474.
  81. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Qiang Li & Jikun Huang & Renfu Luo & Chengfang Liu, 2013. "China's Labor Transition and the Future of China's Rural Wages and Employment," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(3), pages 4-24, May.
  83. Chang, Tzu-Pu & Hu, Jin-Li & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Sun, Lei, 2012. "The sources of bank productivity growth in China during 2002–2009: A disaggregation view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1997-2006.
  84. Gower, Luke & Wilson, Dominic, 2000. "Displaced Capital and Japanese Economic Growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 105-120, June.
  85. CAI, Fang & DU, Yang, 2011. "Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-610.
  86. Yiping Huang & Jian Chang & Lingxiu Yang, 2013. "Consumption Recovery and Economic Rebalancing in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 12(1), pages 47-67, Winter/Sp.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trn:utwpem:2015/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (roberto.gabriele@unitn.it)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.