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The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?

  • Prema-chandra Athukorala

    ()

This paper examines the effects of China’s rapid integration into the global economy on export performance of its East Asian neighbours against the backdrop of ongoing changes in patterns of international production. Following a stage-setting overview of trends and patterns of China’s export performance since the early 1990s, it probes two key themes central to the current policy debate, namely China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of East Asian exports to China. The statistical analysis places particular emphasis on the supply-side complementarities between China and its East Asian neighbours resulting from China’s rapid integration into regional production networks. The findings suggest that the fear of export crowding-out has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate on the implications of China’s rise.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2007/wp-econ-2007-10.pdf
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Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2007-10.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2007-10
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  1. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports," NBER Working Papers 12173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, S.J., 1999. "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 418, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Aug 2000.
  4. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
  5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Lim, Edwin & Spence, Michael, 2006. "China and the Global Economy: Medium-Term Issues and Options--A Synthesis Report," Working Paper Series rwp06-029, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
  8. Robert Feenstra, 2003. "Integration Of Trade And Disintegration Of Production In The Global Economy," Working Papers 986, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  9. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Hal Hill, 2010. "Asian trade: long-term patterns and key policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 52-82, November.
  10. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  11. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 65-95, January.
  12. Knight, John & Wang, Wei, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Athukorala, Prema-Chandra, 2011. "South-South Trade: An Asian Perspective," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 265, Asian Development Bank.
  14. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns:East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2009-15, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  15. Brown, Clair & Linden, Greg, 2005. "Offshoring in the Semiconductor Industry: Historical Perspectives," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt0wv0k78t, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  16. Athukorala, Prema–Chandra & Menon, Jayant, 2010. "Global Production Sharing, Trade Patterns, and Determinants of Trade Flows in East Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 41, Asian Development Bank.
  17. A Salim, Ruhu & Mahfuz Kabir, Mohammad, 2011. "Does More Trade Potential Remain in Arab States of the Gulf ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 217-243.
  18. Carolyn Evans & James Harrigan, 2003. "Distance, time, and specialization," International Finance Discussion Papers 766, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2003. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Departmental Working Papers 2003-21, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  20. Pomfret, Richard & Sourdin, Patricia, 2009. "Have Asian trade agreements reduced trade costs?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 255-268, May.
  21. Richard B. Freeman, 2005. "Does Globalization of the Scientific/Engineering Workforce Threaten U.S. Economic Leadership?," NBER Working Papers 11457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
  23. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region: How Wide, How Deep?," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-31, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  24. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "China’s Trade in Asia and the World: Long run Relation with Short run Dynamics," MPRA Paper 30664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2011.
  25. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  26. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
  27. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "Trends and Patterns of Foreign Direct Investments In Asia: A Comparative Perspective," Departmental Working Papers 2009-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  28. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-102.
  29. Ronald W. Jones, 2000. "Globalization and the Theory of Input Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026210086x, June.
  30. Ian Coxhead & Sisira Jayasuriya, 2010. "China, India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low-income Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 525-551, 04.
  31. Michael Thorpe, 2009. "China and East Asian production networks: some policy implications," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 291-306.
  32. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2010. "East Asia in World Trade: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis and Policy Challenges," Departmental Working Papers 2010-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  33. Evelyn S. Devadason, 2011. "Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 129-149, 06.
  34. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 2010. "Global Production Sharing, Trade Patterns and Determinants of Trade Flows," Departmental Working Papers 2010-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
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