IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China

  • Bonatti, Luigi
  • Fracasso, Andrea

We present a two-country two-stage growth model capturing several salient features of the special US–China relationship and reproducing the process of export-led growth and structural change in China. In phase 1, China accumulates and sterilizes US assets (and finances US consumption) as it pegs the renminbi to the dollar at an undervalued level, thus stimulating the domestic production of tradables, compressing domestic consumption and facilitating the transition of surplus labor into the modern sectors of the economy. In phase 2, we analyze possible future scenarios. In Scenario A, the Chinese fiscal policy is effective in partially substituting exports by shifting the domestic demand toward tradables. Scenario B emphasizes the risks for China of abandoning too early the pegging. Scenario C shows that the Chinese continuation of an export-led growth strategy is economically feasible.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X13000052
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-32

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-32
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carsten A. Holz, 2005. "China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow," Development and Comp Systems 0507001, EconWPA.
  2. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
  3. Rudolfs Bems, 2008. "Aggregate Investment Expenditures on Tradable and Nontradable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 852-883, October.
  4. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
  5. Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
  6. Song, Zheng Michael & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2009. "Growing like China," CEPR Discussion Papers 7149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2011. "The End of Chimerica," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, 04.
  9. Christopher Garroway & Burcu Hacibedel & Helmut Reisen & Edouard Turkisch, 2012. "The Renminbi and Poor‐country Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 273-294, 03.
  10. Rodrik, Dani, 2010. "Making Room for China in the World Economy," Scholarly Articles 5341587, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  11. Philip Lane & Sergio Schmukler, 2007. "The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 499-520, September.
  12. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An equilibrum model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates," BIS Working Papers 222, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
  14. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
  15. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Vendryes, Thomas, 2011. "Migration constraints and development: Hukou and capital accumulation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 669-692.
  17. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
  18. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 575-627, 07.
  20. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
  21. Yiping Huang & Xun Wang, 2011. "Does Financial Repression Inhibit or Facilitate Economic Growth? A Case Study of Chinese Reform Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73, pages 833-855, December.
  22. Zhang, Xiaobo & Yang, Jin & Wang, Shenglin, 2010. "China has reached the lewis turning point," IFPRI discussion papers 977, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  23. Xianguo Yao & Minghai Zhou, 2011. "China’s Economic and Trade Development: Imbalance to Equilibrium," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(12), pages 2081-2096, December.
  24. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, 05.
  25. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2006. "Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 236, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  27. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2010. "Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010," Policy Briefs PB10-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  28. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2011. "Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 611-625.
  29. Helene Rey & Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," 2005 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate And Elasticity Of Labor Supply In A Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Macrodynamics," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 11, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  31. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, June.
  32. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, 09.
  33. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  34. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2009. "Bretton Woods Ii Still Defines The International Monetary System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 297-311, 08.
  35. Willem Thorbecke & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On China'S Labour-Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 398-409, 08.
  36. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
  37. Qi, Li & Prime, Penelope B., 2009. "Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 388-401, September.
  38. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism And The Learning By Doing Externality," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 324-335, 08.
  39. Gaaitzen J. de Vries & Abdul A. Erumban & Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov & Harry X. Wu, 2011. "Deconstructing The BRICs: Structural Transformation And Aggregate Productivity Growth," HSE Working papers WP BRP 04/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  40. Richard E. Baldwin & Elena Seghezza, 1996. "Trade-Induced Investment-led Growth," NBER Working Papers 5582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Robert Dekle & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2010. "Whither Chinese Growth? A Sectoral Growth Accounting Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 487-498, 08.
  43. Blanchard, Olivier J & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "Global Imbalances: In Midstream?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Korinek, Anton & Serven, Luis, 2010. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation : static losses, dynamic gains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5250, The World Bank.
  45. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime," Working Paper Series rwp08-077, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  46. Jahangir Aziz, 2006. "Rebalancing China’s Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 06/291, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011. "The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
  48. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Structural Change, and Real Exchange Rate Appreciations," IMF Working Papers 10/63, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Holz, Carsten A., 2011. "The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 220-238, November.
  50. Ghironi, Fabio & Iscan, Talan B. & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2008. "Net foreign asset positions and consumption dynamics in the international economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1337-1359, December.
  51. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
  52. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei & Tamim Bayoumi, 2010. "The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle: A Firm-level Cross-country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/275, International Monetary Fund.
  54. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
  55. Ding, Sai & Knight, John, 2009. "Can the augmented Solow model explain China's remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 432-452, September.
  56. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  57. Leslie Lipschitz & Geneviève Verdier & Céline Rochon, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 08/99, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Development," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  59. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, 09.
  60. Kai Guo & Papa N'Diaye, 2009. "Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 09/172, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Knight, John & Wang, Wei, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  62. Céline Rochon & Andrew Feltenstein & Maral Shamloo, 2007. "High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia: How to Improve Welfare While Avoiding Financial Failures," IMF Working Papers 07/278, International Monetary Fund.
  63. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
  64. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2006. "China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path," Policy Briefs PB06-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  65. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
  66. Louis Kuijs & Tao Wang, 2006. "China's Pattern of Growth: Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14.
  67. Ester Gomes da Silva & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2006. "Surveying structural change: seminal contributions and a bibliometric account," FEP Working Papers 232, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  68. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  69. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
  70. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
  71. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
  72. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  73. Marco G. Ercolani & Zheng Wei, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Dualistic Economic Development: 1965–2009," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(3), pages 1-29, October.
  74. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  75. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "China and its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilizing Influence?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3449, CESifo Group Munich.
  76. Emanuele Baldacci & Ding Ding & David Coady & Giovanni Callegari & Pietro Tommasino & Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers 10/69, International Monetary Fund.
  77. Damiano Sandri & Pau Rabanal & Isabelle Méjean, 2011. "Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/46, International Monetary Fund.
  78. Yiping HUANG, 2010. "Dissecting the China Puzzle: Asymmetric Liberalization and Cost Distortion," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 281-295, December.
  79. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 427-431, May.
  80. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.