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Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China

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  • Bonatti, Luigi
  • Fracasso, Andrea

Abstract

We present a two-country two-stage growth model capturing several salient features of the special US–China relationship and reproducing the process of export-led growth and structural change in China. In phase 1, China accumulates and sterilizes US assets (and finances US consumption) as it pegs the renminbi to the dollar at an undervalued level, thus stimulating the domestic production of tradables, compressing domestic consumption and facilitating the transition of surplus labor into the modern sectors of the economy. In phase 2, we analyze possible future scenarios. In Scenario A, the Chinese fiscal policy is effective in partially substituting exports by shifting the domestic demand toward tradables. Scenario B emphasizes the risks for China of abandoning too early the pegging. Scenario C shows that the Chinese continuation of an export-led growth strategy is economically feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2013.01.004
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    4. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sino-American co-dependency; Growth models; Structural change; Global imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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