High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures
This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation. This "investment hunger" can lead to unanticipated declines in the returns to investment, and resulting financial insolvencies. Private consumption remains low and there are concerns that high savings rates cannot be sustained. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and apply it to a stylized Asian economy, loosely based upon China. We calibrate a benchmark equilibrium, and carry out various counterfactual simulations to analyze alternative policies, in particular tax cuts and exchange rate revaluations, as instruments in increasing private consumption while avoiding bank failures.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001.
"Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
- Andrew Feltenstein, 2000. "Bank Failures and Fiscal Austerity; Policy Presecriptions for a Developing Country," IMF Working Papers 00/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Ekholm, Karolina & Forslid, Rikard & Markusen, James R., 2003.
"Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jim Markusen & Caroline Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, 2005. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp050, IIIS.
- Karolina Ekholm & Rikard Forslid & James Markusen, 2003. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 9517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Berry Wilson, 1996.
"Bank capital and portfolio management: the 1930s capital crunch and scramble to shed risk,"
521, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Charles W. Calormiris & Berry Wilson, 1998. "Bank Capital and Portfolio Management: The 1930's Capital Crunch and Scramble to Shed Risk," NBER Working Papers 6649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce Blonigen, 2005.
"A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants,"
Atlantic Economic Journal,
Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
- Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001.
"Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence,"
in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 71-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 1999. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2007.
"Is China’s FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?,"
in: Foreign Direct Investment in Europe, chapter 11
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2007. "Is China's FDI coming at the expense of other countries?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-172, June.
- Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2005. "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007.
"The international financial integration of China and India,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4132, The World Bank.
- Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio, 2006. "The International Financial Integration of China and India," CEPR Discussion Papers 5852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Feltenstein & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2003. ""Big Bang" Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms: An Intertemporal Analysis with an Application to China," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-6.
- Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2001. "Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 385-396.
- Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr. & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001.
"Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms,"
NBER Working Papers
8433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fung, K. C. & Iizaka, Hitomi & Siu, Alan, 2003. "Japanese direct investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 304-315.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
- Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
- WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010.
"China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
- John Whalley & Xian Xin, 2006. "China's FDI and Non-FDI Economies and the Sustainability of Future High Chinese Growth," NBER Working Papers 12249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:91:y:2010:i:1:p:25-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.