Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China
China exhibits above average savings and below average consumption as shares of total economic activity when compared with other countries. At the same time, to create more balanced growth at home and rebalance key bilateral trade and capital flow relationships, China's leadership is trying to increase domestic demand. To complement studies that investigate the high rate of savings in China, this study focuses on the variation in consumption as a share of GDP across provinces between 1979 and 2004. Drawing on well-established consumption theories and work done on savings behavior in China, this paper develops an empirical investigation of the variables hypothesized to influence the pattern of consumption across regions. We find that the normal, economic variables have a small explanatory power if significant at all, while the key variables influencing the macro consumption share are structural, and mostly related to government behavior. For example, local government expenditure on health and education is significant and has a relatively large effect on consumption. Consistent with this we also find a positive relationship between consumption shares and the size of the state sector and the share of tax revenue in GDP. We also find some evidence that financial development has a positive effect on consumption shares. Our results suggest that in order for domestic consumption to be increased in the future, new public and private options to replace the declining security and responsibility of the prior state-dominated system will be needed.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lewis, William W., 2004. "The Power of Productivity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226476766.
- Sandra Poncet, 2005.
"A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-430, 08.
- Sandra PONCET, 2002. "A Fragmented China. Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration," Working Papers 200221, CERDI.
- Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998.
"International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
- Paul R. Masson & Tamim Bayoumi & Hossein Samiei, 1995. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving," IMF Working Papers 95/51, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, November.
- Kenneth W. Clements & Ye Qiang, 2001.
"The Economics of Global Consumption Patterns,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
01-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006.
"Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach,"
China & World Economy,
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor'S Edge: Distortions And Incremental Reform In The People'S Republic Of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135, November.
- Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, June.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007.
"The determinants of household saving in China: a dynamic panel analysis of provincial data,"
Working Paper Series
2007-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2006. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," ISER Discussion Paper 0676, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2007.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2006. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," NBER Working Papers 12723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bai, Chong-En & Du, Yingjuan & Tao, Zhigang & Tong, Sarah Y., 2004.
"Local protectionism and regional specialization: evidence from China's industries,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 397-417, July.
- Chong-En Bai & Yingjuan Du & Zhigang Tao & Sarah Y. Tong, 2003. "Local Protectionism and Regional Specialization: Evidence from China’s Industries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-565, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
- M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
- James L. Seale & Anita Regmi, 2006. "Modeling International Consumption Patterns," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(4), pages 603-624, December.
- Poncet, Sandra, 2003. "Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
- Song, Haiyan & Liu, Xiaming & Romilly, Peter, 1996. " A Time Varying Parameter Approach to the Chinese Aggregate Consumption Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 185-203.
- Yin Zhang & Guang Hua Wan, 2004. "Liquidity constraint, uncertainty and household consumption in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2221-2229.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:388-401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.