IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth

  • Bonatti, Luigi
  • Fracasso, Andrea

There is a widespread consensus that China’s growth paradigm needs a rebalancing away from investment and external demand and towards consumption and domestic demand. This rebalancing process is supposed to be accompanied by the transition towards Renminbi’s full convertibility. In contrast, it is controversial to what extent this adjustment will accelerate the slowdown of China’s growth, which will likely occur because of other structural factors. We address these issues by means of a two-country two-stage (before and after Renminbi’s full convertibility) model, which reproduces some qualitative features of China’s growth pattern and its relationship with the US. We analyze to what extent altering the Chinese exchange rate policy, as well as other structural and policy variables, may have (short-, medium- and long-term) effects on the evolution of the Chinese economy. The paper shows that by lifting the controls on the capital account and letting the currency float, the Chinese authorities will not only expose the economy to the risks of free capital mobility, but will also renounce to important policy instruments for controlling the dynamics of China’s economy and the allocation of the national resources.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 54129.

in new window

Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54129
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, 05.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
  3. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, 09.
  4. Knight, John & Ding, Sai, 2012. "China's Remarkable Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199698691, December.
  5. Adam Wagstaff & Winnie Yip & Magnus Lindelow & William C. Hsiao, 2009. "China's health system and its reform: a review of recent studies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(S2), pages S7-S23, July.
  6. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2011. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  7. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  8. Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "The political economy of “currency manipulation” bashing," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 227-237.
  9. Olivier Jeanne, 2012. "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 18404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/82, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Fang Cai, 2011. "Hukou System Reform and Unification of Rural–urban Social Welfare," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(3), pages 33-48, 05.
  13. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca, 2012. "Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Xiaodong Zhu & Trevor Tombe & Loren Brandt, 2011. "Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space and Sectors in China," 2011 Meeting Papers 1301, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Post-Print halshs-00754518, HAL.
  16. Hiro Ito & Ulrich Volz, 2013. "China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 57-71, 02.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Financial flows, financial crises, and global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 469-480.
  20. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2011. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 32-43, January.
  21. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Ludovic Gauvin, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in China: An International Perspective," Working Papers 2011-08, CEPII research center.
  22. Rudolfs Bems, 2008. "Aggregate Investment Expenditures on Tradable and Nontradable Goods," IMF Working Papers 08/45, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Lindbeck, Assar, 2007. "Economic-Social Interaction in China," Working Paper Series 720, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  24. Rodrik, Dani, 2010. "Making Room for China in the World Economy," Scholarly Articles 5341587, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  25. Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China; A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 13/243, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  27. Yuyu Chen & Ginger Zhe Jin, 2010. "Does Health Insurance Coverage Lead to Better Health and Educational Outcomes? Evidence from Rural China," NBER Working Papers 16417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Marco E. Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism," 2008 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. Zhang, Xiaobo & Kanbur, Ravi, 2005. "Spatial inequality in education and health care in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-204.
  30. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2011. "International Reserves and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Wagstaff, Adam & Lindelow, Magnus & Gao Jun & Xu Ling & Qian Juncheng, 2007. "Extending health insurance to the rural population : an impact evaluation of China's new cooperative medical scheme," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4150, The World Bank.
  32. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
  33. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Chenggang Xu, 2011. "The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1076-1151, December.
  35. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
  36. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
  37. Robert Dekle & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2010. "Whither Chinese Growth? A Sectoral Growth Accounting Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 487-498, 08.
  38. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 427-431, May.
  39. John Greenwood, 2008. "The Costs and Implications of PBC Sterilization," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(2), pages 205-217, Winter.
  40. Liu, Hong & Zhao, Zhong, 2012. "Impact of China's Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance on Health Care Utilization and Expenditure," IZA Discussion Papers 6768, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  41. Birney, Mayling, 2014. "Decentralization and Veiled Corruption under China’s “Rule of Mandates”," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 55-67.
  42. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Development," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  43. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
  44. Ding, Sai & Knight, John, 2009. "Can the augmented Solow model explain China's remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 432-452, September.
  45. Easterlin, Richard A. & Morgan, Robson & Switek, Malgorzata & Wang, Fei, 2013. "China's Life Satisfaction, 1990-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  46. Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011. "The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
  47. Dennis Tao Yang, 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-46, Fall.
  48. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
  49. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
  50. Win Lin Chou & Zijun Wang, 2009. "Regional inequality in China's health care expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(S2), pages S137-S146, July.
  51. Wanchuan Lin & Gordon G. Liu & Gang Chen, 2009. "The Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance: a landmark reform towards universal coverage in China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(S2), pages S83-S96, July.
  52. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
  53. Franklin Allen & Jun & Chenying Zhang & Mengxin Zhao, 2012. "China's Financial System: Opportunities and Challenges," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 63-143 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  55. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Ludovic Gauvin, 2013. "China and global rebalancing: A two-country approach," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-00825239, HAL.
  56. Loren Brandt & Trevor Tombe & Xiadong Zhu, 2012. "Online Appendix to "Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space, and Sectors in China"," Technical Appendices 11-95, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  57. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  58. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.
  59. Xianguo Yao & Minghai Zhou, 2011. "China’s Economic and Trade Development: Imbalance to Equilibrium," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(12), pages 2081-2096, December.
  60. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.