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Growing (with Capital Controls) like China

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Song
  • Kjetil Storesletten
  • Fabrizio Zilibotti

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of capital controls and policies regulating interest rates and the exchange rate in a model of economic transition applied to China. It builds on Song, Storesletten, and Zilibotti (2011) who construct a growth model consistent with salient features of the recent Chinese growth experience: high output growth, sustained returns on capital investment, extensive reallocation within the manufacturing sector, sluggish wage growth, and accumulation of a large trade surplus. The salient features of the theory are asymmetric financial imperfections and heterogeneous productivity across private and state-owned firms. Capital controls and regulation of banks’ deposit rates stifle competition in the banking sector and hamper the lending to productive private firms. Removing such regulation would accelerate the growth in productivity and output. A temporarily undervalued exchange rate reduces real wages and consumption, stimulating investments in the high-productivity entrepreneurial sector. This fosters productivity growth and a trade surplus. A high interest rate mitigates the disadvantage of financially constrained firms, reduces wages, and increases the speed of transition from low- to high-productivity firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2014. "Growing (with Capital Controls) like China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 327-370, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:3:p:327-370
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-39, April.
    2. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2015. "The Imbalanced Catch-up to Rational Expectations: Capital Flows during Convergence," MPRA Paper 71009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2016.
    3. Verikios, George, 2015. "The Implications for Trade And FDI Flows From Liberalisation of China’s Capital Account," Conference papers 332655, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    5. Guo, Shen & Jiang, Zheng & Shi, Huimin, 2018. "The business cycle implications of bank discrimination in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 264-278.
    6. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2021. "Optimal capital account liberalization in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1041-1061.
    7. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    8. Lai, Jennifer & Chen, Hongyi & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment with managed exchange rates and capital controls: Some lessons from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 759-768.
    9. He, Yiqing & Ding, Xin & Yang, Chuchu, 2021. "Do environmental regulations and financial constraints stimulate corporate technological innovation? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Uddin, Md Akther & Baddou, Mehdi & Gulzar Mohd, Rosana, 2015. "Implications of Chinese Yuan on China’s competitiveness," MPRA Paper 70144, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. James Riedel, 2018. "The costs and benefits of exchange rate protection in China," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 32(1), pages 3-17, May.
    12. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    13. Hengxu Song & Pengfei Wang, 2023. "Can Monetary Policy Undo Asset‐freezing Sanctions?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 33-55, November.
    14. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2016. "Modelling The Transition Towards The Renminbi'S Full Convertibility: Implications For China'S Growth," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(S1), pages 146-170, December.
    15. Chang, Chun & Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-15.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    18. Moazam Mahmood & Shamyla Chaudry, 2020. "Pakistan’s Balance-of-Payments Crisis and Some Policy Options," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 55-92, July-Dec.

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