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China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow

  • Holz, Carsten A.

Summary This paper examines China's future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches. It first asks in how far China's recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory. Second, GDP is decomposed into income components, which in turn are explained, for the reform period, by the quantity and quality of labor; future GDP can then be re-composed from future labor data available today. Overall, China's economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows. Such a growth has numerous implications.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC6-4TB0V7X-1/2/60ba1924f4785f58fb15b8afa1ff2265
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1665-1691

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:1665-1691
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. Yingyi Qian, 2000. "The Process of China's Market Transition (1978-1998): The Evolutionary, Historical, and Comparative Perspectives," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 156(1), pages 151-, March.
  2. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 2004. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 135-146, Summer.
  4. Chow, Gregory C & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 247-56, October.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
  7. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "China'S Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison'S Estimates? Response To Angus Maddison'S Reply," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(3), pages 471-475, 09.
  8. Woo Wing Thye, 1994. "The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-308, June.
  9. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Heckman, James J., 2005. "China's human capital investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 50-70.
  11. Angus Maddison, 2006. "DO OFFICIAL STATISTICS EXAGGERATE CHINA's GDP GROWTH? A REPLY TO CARSTEN HOLZ," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 121-126, 03.
  12. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
  13. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "CHINA's REFORM PERIOD ECONOMIC GROWTH: HOW RELIABLE ARE ANGUS MADDISON's ESTIMATES?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 85-119, 03.
  14. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
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