IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0455.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Yothin Jinjarak

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Nancy P. Marion

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

In the run-up to the financial crisis, the world economy was characterized by large and growing current account imbalances. Since the onset of the crisis, the People’s Republic of China and the United States have rebalanced. As a share of gross domestic product, their current account imbalances are now less than half their pre-crisis levels. For the People’s Republic of China, the reduction in its current account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 economies over the thirty-year period, 1983–2013, confirm that the relationship between current account balances and economic variables such as performance, structure, wealth, and the exchange rate, changed in important ways after the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy P. Marion, 2014. "The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," ADBI Working Papers 455, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2014.01.24.wp455.prc.growth.stability.international.reserves.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    3. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 173-204, November.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt44g3n2j8, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2tn4w8x6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    9. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    10. Martin Feldstein, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 113-125, Summer.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2010. "Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-44, March.
    12. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
    13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    14. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    17. Dennis Tao Yang, 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-146, Fall.
    18. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Cabezas & José De Gregorio, 2018. "Accumulation of Reserves in Emerging and Developing Countries: Mercantilism vs. Insurance," Working Papers wp467, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    2. Campbell, Douglas L., 2016. "Measurement matters: Productivity-adjusted weighted average relative price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
    3. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy Marion, 2014. "China’s Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 407-428, July.
    2. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    3. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2010. "Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-44, March.
    7. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    9. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    10. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Current account balance and dollar standard: Exploring the linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-94.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort” and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    12. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    14. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2014. "A forensic analysis of global imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 465-490.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian, 2011. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility— Policy lessons from the past two decades," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9j53m1tp, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    16. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "International Reserve Management and the Current Account," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 11, pages 435-474, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    18. Menzie D. Chinn, 2012. "Imbalances, Overheating and the Prospects for Global Recovery," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. repec:grz:wpsses:2015-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Pingfan Hong & Rob Vos & Keping Yao, 2008. "How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 35-50, September.
    22. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.