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The US as the “demander of last resort†and its implications on China’s current account

  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Jinjarak, Yothin

This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the “demander of last resort:†a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with 0.3% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 4/5 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China’s current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt986646mz.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt986646mz
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  18. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  19. Aizenman, Joshua, 2008. "Relative price levels and current accounts: an exploration," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6w64k75x, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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