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Demographic Changes and International Factor Mobility

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  • John F. Helliwell

Abstract

This paper reviews the extent and policy implications of linkages between demographic changes and international factor mobility. Evidence is found of significant demographic effects on both migration and the current account, but for different reasons neither increased migration nor international transfers of savings is expected to offer much assistance in digesting the variety of demographic transitions expected over the next fifty years. The paper also examines more briefly the effects of demography on the factor content of international trade, as exemplified by offshore provision of back-office and other services previously provided closer to home. When considering the consequences of using international capital movements and especially migration to mediate international differences in demographic patterns, I broaden the focus from the usual economic variables, such as the size and distribution of incomes and employment, to consider explicit measures of well-being, which have been shown to depend on far more than economic variables. This has implications for a whole range of policies, both domestic and international, that might help deal with national and global demographic transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • John F. Helliwell, 2004. "Demographic Changes and International Factor Mobility," NBER Working Papers 10945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10945
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet MERCAN, 2014. "Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 231-245.
    2. Lange, Fabian & Gollin, Douglas, 2007. "Equipping Immigrants: Migration Flows and Capital Movements," IZA Discussion Papers 2745, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Akira Yakita, 2014. "Effects of capital taxation on economies with different demographic changes: short term versus long term," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 257-273, January.
    5. Zubarev, Andrei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: modern aspects," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 54-73, August.
    6. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    7. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    8. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2009. "The Usa As The 'Demander Of Last Resort' And The Implications For China'S Current Account," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 426-442, August.
    10. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    11. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account," NBER Working Papers 14453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort†and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Akira Yakita, 2012. "Different demographic changes and patterns of trade in a Heckscher–Ohlin setting," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 853-870, July.
    15. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    16. Douglas Gollin & Eric Van Dusen & Harvey Blackburn, 2008. "Animal genetic resource trade flows: Economic assessment," Center for Development Economics 2008-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    17. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 9(2), pages 155-175, May.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    19. Pavel Trunin & Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Modern Aspects," Working Papers 0070, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    20. Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2010. "Determinants of Private Saving in Turkey: An Update," Working Papers 2010/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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