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A Century of Current Account Dynamics

  • Alan M. Taylor

Recent globalization trends have refocused attention on the historical evolution of international capital mobility over the long run. The issue is examined here using time-series analysis of current-account dynamics for fifteen countries since circa 1850. The inter-war period emerges as an era of low capital mobility and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century. The analysis of saving and investment dynamics also helps make sense of the frequently observed high correlation of saving and investment rates in historical data.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8927.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8927.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Publication status: published as Taylor, Alan M. "A Century Of Current Account Dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2002, v21(6,Nov), 725-748.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8927
Note: DAE IFM
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  1. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Barry Eichengreen, 1990. "Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending," NBER Working Papers 3411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jansen, W.J. & Schulze, G.G., 1993. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Papers 9302-g, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
  7. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, June.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521431033 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Jansen, W. Jos, 1997. "Can the intertemporal budget constraint explain the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-83, September.
  11. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  12. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
  13. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. W. J. Jansen, 1996. "The Feldstein-Horioka Test of International Capital Mobility: Is it Feasible?," IMF Working Papers 96/100, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August.
  18. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
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