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A Century of Current Account Dynamics

  • Alan M. Taylor

Recent globalization trends have refocused attention on the historical evolution of international capital mobility over the long run. The issue is examined here using time-series analysis of current-account dynamics for fifteen countries since circa 1850. The inter-war period emerges as an era of low capital mobility and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century. The analysis of saving and investment dynamics also helps make sense of the frequently observed high correlation of saving and investment rates in historical data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8927.

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Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Taylor, Alan M. "A Century Of Current Account Dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2002, v21(6,Nov), 725-748.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8927
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1990. "Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending," NBER Working Papers 3411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jansen, W.J. & Schulze, G.G., 1993. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Papers 9302-g, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
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  12. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August.
  13. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, June.
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