IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkpr/y2004iaugp369-420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic changes and international factor mobility

Author

Listed:
  • John F. Helliwell

Abstract

This paper reviews the extent and policy implications of linkages between demographic changes and international factor mobility. Evidence is found of significant demographic effects on both migration and the current account, but for different reasons neither increased migration nor international transfers of savings is expected to offer much assistance in digesting the variety of demographic transitions expected over the next fifty years. The paper also examines more briefly the effects of demography on the factor content of international trade, as exemplified by offshore provision of back-office and other services previously provided closer to home. When considering the consequences of using international capital movements and especially migration to mediate international differences in demographic patterns, I broaden the focus from the usual economic variables, such as the size and distribution of incomes and employment, to consider explicit measures of well-being, which have been shown to depend on far more than economic variables. This has implications for a whole range of policies, both domestic and international, that might help deal with national and global demographic transitions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • John F. Helliwell, 2004. "Demographic changes and international factor mobility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 369-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:2004:i:aug:p:369-420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/sympos/2004/pdf/Helliwell2004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bayoumi, Tamim A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1993. "Domestic savings and intra-national capital flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1197-1202, August.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," NBER Working Papers 9159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    5. Taylor, Alan M & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1994. "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 348-371, April.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Davis, Donald R. & David E. Weinstein & Scott C. Bradford & Kazushige Shimpo, 1997. "Using International and Japanese Regional Data to Determine When the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 421-446, June.
    8. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    9. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    10. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
    11. Baldwin, Richard & Venables, Anthony J, 1994. "International Migration, Capital Mobility and Transitional Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 285-300, August.
    12. Dekle, Robert, 1996. "Saving-investment associations and capital mobility On the evidence from Japanese regional data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 53-72, August.
    13. Devesh Kapur, 2001. "Diasporas and Technology Transfer," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 265-286.
    14. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    15. John F. Helliwell & Ross McKitrick, 1999. "Comparing Capital Mobility Across Provincial and National Borders," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1164-1173, November.
    16. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-180, March.
    17. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    18. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    19. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    20. John Helliwell, 2007. "Well-Being and Social Capital: Does Suicide Pose a Puzzle?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 81(3), pages 455-496, May.
    21. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519, Decembrie.
    22. BRYANT Ralph C. (translator: SHIMASAWA Manabu ), 2004. "DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES ON PUBLIC PENSION SYSTEMS AND GOVERNMENT BUDGETS IN OPEN ECONOMIES (in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 109, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Gollin & Eric Van Dusen & Harvey Blackburn, 2008. "Animal genetic resource trade flows: Economic assessment," Center for Development Economics 2008-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    2. Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2010. "Determinants of Private Saving in Turkey: An Update," Working Papers 2010/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    3. Lange, Fabian & Gollin, Douglas, 2007. "Equipping Immigrants: Migration Flows and Capital Movements," IZA Discussion Papers 2745, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort” and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Mehmet MERCAN, 2014. "Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 231-245.
    7. Douglas Gollin & Fabian Lange, 2013. "Equipping immigrants: migration flows and capital movements in small open economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 749-777, December.
    8. Polbin Andrey & Zubarev Andrey & Rybak Konstantin, 2020. "Capital mobility in commodity-exporting economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    11. Akira Yakita, 2014. "Effects of capital taxation on economies with different demographic changes: short term versus long term," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 257-273, January.
    12. Akira Yakita, 2012. "Different demographic changes and patterns of trade in a Heckscher–Ohlin setting," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 853-870, July.
    13. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2009. "The Usa As The ‘Demander Of Last Resort’ And The Implications For China'S Current Account," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 426-442, August.
    15. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    16. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(2), pages 155-175, May.
    17. Zubarev, Andrei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: modern aspects," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 54-73, August.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    19. Hettihewa, Samanthala & Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2018. "Does an aging population influence stock markets? Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 142-158.
    20. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    21. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    22. Pavel Trunin & Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Modern Aspects," Working Papers 0070, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    2. Saileshsingh Gunessee & Cheng Zhang, 2022. "The economics of domestic market integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1069-1095, September.
    3. Yannick BINEAU, 2010. "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    4. Jérome Hericourt & Mathilde Maurel, 2006. "A new look at the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a European-regional perspective," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(2), pages 147-168.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Margarita Katsimi & Gylfi Zoega, 2016. "European Integration and the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 834-852, December.
    9. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Savings, investment, and capital mobility within China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 14-23, March.
    10. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    11. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    12. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 65-104, March.
    13. Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2009. "Do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 86-100, February.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    15. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    16. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    17. Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald & Jacques Melitz, 2008. "Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 557-578, November.
    18. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    19. Michele Fratianni, 2004. "Borders and the Constraints on Globalization," Working Papers 2004-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    20. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:2004:i:aug:p:369-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.