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The Coming Demographic Impact on China's Growth: The Age Factor in the Middle-Income Trap

Author

Listed:
  • Fang Cai

    (Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

Thanks to successful economic growth, social development, and strict implementation of family planning policies, the demographic transition in China has been accomplished at a much earlier stage of development than in other countries. I call this outcome “aging before affluence.” As a result of this demographic transition, China has already passed through its Lewis turning point, and its demographic dividend from the decline in the population dependence ratio is about to end. I identify a potential nexus between “aging before affluence” and the “middle-income trap.” China is losing comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, but China is not ready to gain comparative advantage in technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries. For China to avoid the middle-income trap, it must (1) transform economic growth to a consumption-driven pattern; (2) shift the labor-intensive industries to the central and western regions; and (3) speed up technological catching up. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai, 2012. "The Coming Demographic Impact on China's Growth: The Age Factor in the Middle-Income Trap," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 95-111, Winter/Sp.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:11:y:2012:i:1:p:95-111
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    2. Françoise Lemoine, 2013. "From foreign trade to international investment: a new step in China’s integration with the world economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 25-43, March.
    3. Prema†chandra Athukorala & Zheng Wei, 2018. "Economic Transition And Labour Market Dynamics In China: An Interpretative Survey Of The €˜Turning Point’ Debate," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 420-439, April.
    4. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2020. "The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia* Abstract: We modify the concept of the middle-income trap (MIT) against ," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 40-58, Fall.
    6. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2012. "Scanning the Ups and Downs of China’s Trade Imbalances," Working Papers 2012-14, CEPII research center.
    8. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Zheng Wei, 2015. "Economic Transition and Labour Market Dynamics in China: An Interpretative Survey of the ‘Turning Point’ Debate," Departmental Working Papers 2015-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    9. Ke-Liang Wang & Ting-Ting Sun & Ru-Yu Xu, 2023. "The impact of artificial intelligence on total factor productivity: empirical evidence from China’s manufacturing enterprises," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1113-1146, April.
    10. Yimin Chen & Yulin Liu & Xin Fang, 2021. "The new evidence of China’s economic downturn: From structural bonus to structural imbalance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-25, September.
    11. Bingqiang Li & Jing Yu & Lei Huang & Jinzhi Li & Changhan Luo, 2021. "Coupling Development of Manufacturing Promotion and Innovation in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    12. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Xianling Zhang & Fei Guo & Zhenwu Zhai, 2019. "China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-563, August.
    15. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 15/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2020.
    16. Ozturk, Ayse, 2016. "Examining the economic growth and the middle-income trap from the perspective of the middle class," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 726-738.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lewis turning point; demographic dividend; middle-income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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