IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Oumar Diallo
  • Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.

Suggested Citation

  • Oumar Diallo & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns," IMF Working Papers 2014/035, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41353
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba, 2009. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(2), pages 287-318, March.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    5. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    6. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip Strahan, 2003. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 9704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    8. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    10. Issouf Samaké & Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage: Are there Growth Spillovers?," IMF Working Papers 2011/267, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Miss Estelle X Liu, 2013. "Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?," IMF Working Papers 2013/250, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
    13. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    15. Harry G. Broadman, 2007. "Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7186, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Brixiova & Qingwei Meng & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 16(3), pages 141-162, July.
    2. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2016. "Debt Sustainability and direction of trade: What does Africa’s shifting engagement with BRIC and OECD tells us?," MPRA Paper 76581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Meng Qingwei, 2014. "Working Paper 198 - Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," Working Paper Series 2104, African Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oumar Diallo & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2016. "Rising BRIC and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 260-284, February.
    2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    3. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
    5. Adama Bah, 2013. "Civil Conflicts as a Constraint to Regional Economic Integration in Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 521-534, December.
    6. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    7. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2020. "Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 201-222, May.
    8. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    10. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 95275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:25:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2013. "Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen [Endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria: a re-examination]," MPRA Paper 46727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    15. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 98748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Adama BAH & Sampawende Jules TAPSOBA, 2010. "Civil Conflicts and Regional Economic Integration Outcomes in Africa," Working Papers 201009, CERDI.
    18. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    19. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
    20. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
    21. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 389-409.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.