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Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage: Are there Growth Spillovers?

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  • Issouf Samaké
  • Yongzheng Yang

Abstract

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate the extent of business cycle transmission from BRICs to LICs through both direct (FDI, trade, productivity, exchange rates) and indirect (global commodity prices, demand, and interest rates) channels. The estimation results show that there are significant direct spillovers while indirect spillovers also matters in many cases. Based on these results, we show that growing LIC-BRIC ties have significantly helped alleviate the adverse impact of the recent global financial crisis on LIC economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Issouf Samaké & Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage: Are there Growth Spillovers?," IMF Working Papers 2011/267, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/267
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    2. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald, 2019. "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2019/160, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Lukman Oyeyinka Oyelami & P.A. Olomola, 2016. "External shocks and macroeconomic responses in Nigeria: A global VAR approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1239317-123, December.
    6. Ameet Kumar & Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro & Rakesh Kumar & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Sarfraz Ahmed Dakhan & Vikesh Kumar, 2020. "Decomposing the Effect of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Real and Financial Sectors: Evidence from BRIC Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic Transmission of Eurozone Shocks to Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 131, pages 43-70.
    8. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/241, International Monetary Fund.
    9. ViniÌ cius de Azevedo Couto Firme & JoaniÌ lio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2014. "Index of Macroeconomic Performance for a Subset of Countries: A Kaldorian Analysis from the Magic Square Approach Focusing on Brazilian Economy in the Period 1997-2012," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(5), pages 527-542, October.
    10. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    11. United Nations ESCAP (ed.), 2011. "Trade beyond Doha: Prospects for Asia-Pacific Least Developed Countries, Studies in Trade and Investment 76," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number tipub2625, January-j.
    12. Oumar Diallo & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns," IMF Working Papers 2014/035, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Nihal Bayraktar, 2017. "Impacts Of Africa'S Total And Commodity-Based Trade With China And Oecd Countries†," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 95-113.
    14. Al-Najjar, Basil, 2013. "The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-88.
    15. Samake, Issouf & Yang, Yongzheng, 2014. "Low-income countries’ linkages to BRICS: Are there growth spillovers?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Papageorgiou,Chris & Spatafora,Nikola L. & Wang,Ke, 2015. "Diversification, growth, and volatility in Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7380, The World Bank.
    17. Yongzheng Yang & Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "BRICs’ Philosophies for Development Financing and their Implications for LICs," IMF Working Papers 2012/074, International Monetary Fund.

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