IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective

  • STEPHANE DEES
  • M. HASHEM PESARAN
  • L. VANESSA SMITH
  • RON P. SMITH

This paper is concerned with the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) and focuses on two issues: the weak instrument problem and the characterization of the steady states. It proposes some solutions from a global perspective. Using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model steady states are estimated as long-horizon expectations and valid instruments are constructed from the global variables as weighted averages. The proposed estimation strategy is illustrated using estimates of the NKPC for eight developed industrial countries. The GVAR generates global factors that are valid instruments and help alleviate the weak instrument problem. The steady states also reflect global influences and any long-run theoretical relationships that might prevail within and across countries in the global economy. The GVAR measure of the steady state performed better than the HP measure, and the use of foreign instruments substantially increased the precision of the estimates of the output coefficient. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00264.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1481-1502

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:7:p:1481-1502
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, . "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 2003_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2003.
  2. Adrian R. Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Discussion Papers 2008-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  3. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:877-88 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Pesaran, M. H., 1981. "Identification of rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 375-398, August.
  6. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1, pages 1-20.
  7. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
  8. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
  9. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  10. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Factor-GMM Estimation with Large Sets of Possibly Weak Instruments," Working Papers 577, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  11. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  12. Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "A Generalised R2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variable Method," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9220, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2011. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 4-22, July.
  15. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, 09.
  17. James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-component decompositions of GDP so Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  18. Adrian Pagan & Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks. Working paper #7," NCER Working Paper Series 7, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  19. Li, Hong, 2007. "Small-sample inference in rational expectations models with persistent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 203-210, May.
  20. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178.
  21. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & David Lopez-Salido, 2005. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 11788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
  24. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1993. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and its Testable Implications," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9314, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  26. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-48, June.
  28. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
  29. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  32. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  33. Hall, Alastair R., 2004. "Generalized Method of Moments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775201, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:7:p:1481-1502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.