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Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective

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  • STEPHANE DEES
  • M. HASHEM PESARAN
  • L. VANESSA SMITH
  • RON P. SMITH

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) and focuses on two issues: the weak instrument problem and the characterization of the steady states. It proposes some solutions from a global perspective. Using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model steady states are estimated as long-horizon expectations and valid instruments are constructed from the global variables as weighted averages. The proposed estimation strategy is illustrated using estimates of the NKPC for eight developed industrial countries. The GVAR generates global factors that are valid instruments and help alleviate the weak instrument problem. The steady states also reflect global influences and any long-run theoretical relationships that might prevail within and across countries in the global economy. The GVAR measure of the steady state performed better than the HP measure, and the use of foreign instruments substantially increased the precision of the estimates of the output coefficient. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2009. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1481-1502, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:7:p:1481-1502
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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