IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Arizala
  • Mr. Matthieu Bellon
  • Ms. Margaux MacDonald

Abstract

This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner’s is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald, 2019. "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2019/160, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=47005
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    2. Almansour, Aseel & Aslam, Aqib & Bluedorn, John & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2015. "How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 460-483.
    3. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1998. "Troubles with the Neighbours: Africa's Problem, Africa's Opportunity," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 7(1), pages 120-142, March.
    4. Robert E. Baldwin, 2004. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 499-521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    6. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Isolation and Aggregation in Economics," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 3, November.
    7. Mark Roberts & Uwe Deichmann, 2011. "International Growth Spillovers, Geography and Infrastructure," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1507-1533, September.
    8. Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mustafa Yenice, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring Different Channels," IMF Spillover Notes 2018/001, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    10. Issouf Samaké & Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage: Are there Growth Spillovers?," IMF Working Papers 2011/267, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bonfatti, Roberto & Poelhekke, Steven, 2017. "From mine to coast: Transport infrastructure and the direction of trade in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 91-108.
    12. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    13. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    15. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/155, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 24-40, April.
    18. Alexander J Moore, 2018. "Growth spillovers and market access in Africa," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 375-391.
    19. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    20. Barrot, Luis-Diego & Calderón, César & Servén, Luis, 2018. "Openness, specialization, and the external vulnerability of developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 310-328.
    21. Olivier Basdevant, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Rules in the Face of Revenue Volatility within Southern Africa Customs Union Countries (SACU)," IMF Working Papers 2012/093, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Alin T Mirestean, 2009. "Growth Determinants Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2009/268, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oyenyinka Sunday Omoshoro‐Jones & Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga, 2022. "Intra‐regional spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the rest of Africa: New evidence from a FAVAR model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 251-275, January.
    2. Oyeyinka S. Omoshoro-Jones & Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2021. "Global imbalances, external adjustment and propagated shocks: An African perspective from a global VAR model," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 186-203.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oyenyinka Sunday Omoshoro‐Jones & Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga, 2022. "Intra‐regional spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the rest of Africa: New evidence from a FAVAR model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 251-275, January.
    2. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    3. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew B. Stoeckel & YingYing Lu, 2014. "Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 892-922, July.
    5. Bonfatti, Roberto & Poelhekke, Steven, 2017. "From mine to coast: Transport infrastructure and the direction of trade in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 91-108.
    6. Hippolyte Fofack, 2014. "The Idea of Economic Development: Views from Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-093, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," Borradores de Economia 1149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    10. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 292-319, May.
    11. Alexander Maune, 2019. "Financial Inclusion and the Trade-Growth Nexus: Evidence from the Emerging Zimbabwean Economy," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 43-55.
    12. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2017. "China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429, July.
    13. L. G. Burange & Rucha R. Ranadive & Neha N. Karnik, 2019. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of BRICS," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Ahmad, Mahyudin & Hall, Stephen G., 2017. "Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1065-1085.
    15. Luis Quintana-Romero & Nam Kwon Mun & Roldán Andrés-Rosales & José Álvarez-García, 2020. "Trade Complementarity and the Balance of Payments Constraint Hypothesis: A New Free Trade Agreement between Mexico and South Korea," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-21, October.
    16. Ms. Olessia Korbut & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2011/040, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    18. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/241, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Feindouno, Sosso & Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2024. "COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    20. Tamás Sebestyén & Zita Iloskics, 2020. "Do economic shocks spread randomly?: A topological study of the global contagion network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.