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China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Furceri

    (International Monetary Fund
    University of Palermo)

  • João Tovar Jalles

    (International Monetary Fund
    Nova School of Business and Economics
    UECE – Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The recent “rebalancing” of China’s economy has raised concerns that the country’s growth slowdown may have large global implications. This note looks at this issue by analyzing the effects of China’s growth shocks on the output of other countries and how these effects have changed over time. Estimates indicate that the magnitude of China’s spillovers has steadily increased during the last two decades, but remains yet limited. Spillovers are larger in neighboring (Asian) countries and in emerging markets and developing economies. Trade linkages remain main transmission channels. In addition, a negative shock in China has (marginal) positive effects for net commodity importers while negative for net commodity exporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2017. "China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-016-9430-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-016-9430-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Sznajderska, 2021. "The Impact of Foreign Shocks on the Polish Economy," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 33-52.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Blagrave, Patrick & Vesperoni, Esteban, 2018. "The implications of China’s slowdown for international trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-47.
    5. Herrala, Risto & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2020. "Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2020, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bataa, Erdenebat & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2018. "China's increasing global influence: Changes in international growth linkages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 194-206.
    9. Herrala, Risto & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2020. "Win-win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Consumed in China: Rebalancing China's demand and Chinese imports," BOFIT Policy Briefs 5/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Xiaoyu Liu & Xiao Zhang, 2023. "Are there financial stability gains from international macroprudential policy coordination?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 575-596, December.
    13. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    14. Anan Wiranto & Nia Yustiana, 2019. "China’s Economic Spillover to ASEAN-6 Economies: Before and After Renminbi Internationalization," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(4), pages 240-256.
    15. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Spillovers; Time-varying estimates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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