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VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models

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  • Schlicht, Ekkehart

    (University of Munich)

Abstract

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimates are moments estimates. They do not require the disturbances to be Gaussian, but if they are, the estimates are asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates. In contrast to Kalman filtering, no specification of an initial state or an initial covariance matrix is required. While the Kalman filter is one sided, the VC filter is two sided and therefore uses more of the available information for estimating intermediate states.. Further, the VC filter has a clear descriptive interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2020. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," IZA Discussion Papers 12920, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12920
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    moments estimation; time-varying coefficients; state-space estimation; linear model; time-series analysis; Kalman filtering; penalized least squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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