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Decomposing And Analysing The Determinants Of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence From The Euro Area

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  • António Afonso
  • João Jalles

Abstract

In this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we compute income elasticities of imports and of exports via an alternative novel and improved approach by running time-varying coefficient models country-by-country. Then, in a panel set-up (and controlling for country-invariant characteristics), we uncover that terms of trade have a positive effect on both the cyclical and non-cyclical components of the CA, while the Global Financial Crisis, compensation of employees and the employment level have a negative effect on the cyclical component. Moreover, the crisis had a greater impact on the cyclical component of the CA due to movements in the real effective exchange rate. In addition, we find a negative effect of the crisis on the cyclical component of the CA for countries that received financial assistance from the European Union, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Jalles, 2018. "Decomposing And Analysing The Determinants Of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence From The Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2018/42, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0422018
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    Cited by:

    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Twin deficits through the looking glass: time-varying analysis in the Euro area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2087-2110, August.
    3. Felice, Giulia & Tajoli, Lucia, 2021. "Trade balances and global value chains: Is there a link?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 228-246.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account cyclicality; financial markets; time-varying coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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