IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp202016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current account balance cyclicality

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • Jorge Silva

Abstract

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1-2014Q4, focussing on Portugal and in Germany, as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-months Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the non-cyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the Economic and Financial Adjustment Program and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration. Key Words : current account cyclicality, financial markets, Portugal, Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2016. "Current account balance cyclicality," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/20, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp202016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp202016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    3. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
    4. Ruo Chen & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2013. "External imbalances in the eurozone [Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 101-142.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Alexandr Hobza & Stefan Zeugner, 2014. "The "imbalanced balance" and its unravelling: current accounts and bilateral financial flows in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 520, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Matteo Salto & Alessandro Turrini, 2010. "427 - Comparing alternative methodologies for real exchange rate assessment - Matteo Salto and Aless," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 427, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, February.
    2. Jorge Silva, 2020. "Determinants of the structure of external funding: the Portuguese case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2073-2084.
    3. João Amador & João Falcão Silva, 2019. "Cyclically-adjusted current account balances in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Jorge Silva, 2017. "Are external accounts sustainable in Portugal?," Working Papers REM 2017/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, February.
    2. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    6. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    7. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    8. Ferreira, Miguel & Adelino, Manuel & Fagandini, Paulo & Queiro, Francisco, 2020. "How Do Firms Respond to Demand Shocks? Evidence from the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Niels Gilbert & Sebastiaan Pool, 2020. "Sectoral allocation and macroeconomic imbalances in EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 945-984, November.
    11. Unger, Robert, 2017. "Asymmetric credit growth and current account imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 435-451.
    12. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    13. Timo Bettendorf & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 617-653, March.
    14. R. Cezar, 2016. "France’s trade integration measured in value added," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 47-58, Autumn.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    16. Sergio de Ferra, 2021. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows, and Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 347-402.
    17. Daniel A. Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2021. "Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 352-376, April.
    18. Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Euro Area Periphery and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 278-308, April.
    19. A. Berthou, 2016. "Current account adjustments and productivity dynamics in Europe during the crisis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 59-70, Autumn.
    20. Kelly, Jane & Le Blanc, Julia & Lydon, Reamonn, 2018. "Pockets of risk in European Housing Markets: then and now," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp202016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vitor Escaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://aquila.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.