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Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and reducing misspecification in empirical macroeconomic models

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  • Den Haan, Wouter J.
  • Drechsel, Thomas

Abstract

Constructing empirical specifications for structural economic models is difficult, if not impossible. As shown in this paper, even minor misspecifications may lead to large distortions for parameter estimates and implied model properties. We propose a novel concept, namely an agnostic structural disturbance (ASD), that can be used to both detect and correct for misspecification of structural disturbances and is easy to implement. While agnostic in nature, the estimated coefficients and associated impulse response functions of the ASDs allow us to give them an economic interpretation. We adopt the methodology to the Smets–Wouters model and formulate an improved risk-premium and an improved investment-specific productivity disturbance.

Suggested Citation

  • Den Haan, Wouter J. & Drechsel, Thomas, 2021. "Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and reducing misspecification in empirical macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 258-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:258-277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.005
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    3. Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    4. Fabio Canova & Christian Matthes, 2021. "Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 313-350, May.
    5. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    6. Adrian Pagan & Michael Wickens, 2019. "Checking if the straitjacket fits," CAMA Working Papers 2019-81, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Thomas Drechsel, 2023. "Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, April.
    8. Damioli, Giacomo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2021. "Diplomatic relations and cross-border investments in the European Union," Working Papers 2021-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    9. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2021. "Lessons from a finitely-lived agents structural model," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    12. Nikolaos Kokonas & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2020. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 2014, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    13. Calo, Silvia & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Petracco Giudici, Marco & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Has the Comprehensive Assessment made the European financial system more resilient?," Working Papers 2021-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Full-information model estimation; Structural disturbances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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