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Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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  • Drechsel, Thomas

Abstract

Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their access to debt. This paper studies macroeconomic implications of earnings-based borrowing constraints. In a macro model, firms with earnings-based constraints borrow more in response to positive investment shocks, whereas firms with collateral constraints borrow less. Empirically, aggregate and firm-level credit responds to identified investment shocks according to the predictions with earnings-based constraints. Moreover, with sticky prices earnings-based constraints imply that supply shocks are quantitatively more important. This is validated in an estimated version of the model, highlighting the importance of carefully modeling credit constraints to understand policy tradeoffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Drechsel, Thomas, 2022. "Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16975
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    2. García, Concepción González, 2025. "Fiscal consolidation in heavily indebted economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. igescu, iulia, 2023. "With or Without Usura? Monetary Policy and Market Creation," MPRA Paper 120865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Drechsel, Thomas & Kim, Seho, 2024. "Macroprudential policy with earnings-based borrowing constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2025. "The positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of England working papers 1128, Bank of England.
    6. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Jin, Chenxin & Jin, Wei & Sheng, Bin & Sun, Zhen & Yan, Bing, 2025. "The dynamic trade and welfare effects of RCEP," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Shah, Rohan, 2024. "Financial crises with different collateral types," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    10. Chiţu, Livia & Grothe, Magdalena & Schulze, Tatjana & Van Robays, Ine, 2023. "Financial shock transmission to heterogeneous firms: the earnings-based borrowing constraint channel," Working Paper Series 2860, European Central Bank.
    11. Iza, Amaia & Ostolozaga, Ibai, 2025. "Borrowing constraints, financial frictions, misallocation and GDP per worker," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
    13. G. Spano, 2024. "Financial frictions and market power accumulation," Working Paper CRENoS 202422, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. Priit Jeenas & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Enrique Moral-Benito & Manuel García-Santana & Julian di Giovanni, 2022. "Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 1321, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Yugang He & Sungho Rho, 2024. "Macroeconomic Stabilization in Crisis: The Role of Investment Shocks and Policy Responses in South Korea During COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    16. João B. Duarte & Afonso S. Moura, 2025. "The Real and Financial Effects of Local Corporate Tax Increases: Evidence from Linked Firm–Bank Data," Working Papers w202511, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Martín Almuzara & Víctor Sancibrián, 2024. "Micro responses to macro shocks," Working Papers wp2024_2412, CEMFI.
    18. Kariya, Ankitkumar, 2022. "Earnings-based borrowing constraints & corporate investments in 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    20. Teoh, Ken, 2025. "Anticipating binding constraints: An analysis of debt covenants," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Choi, Jaedo & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2025. "The long-term effects of industrial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    22. Tobias König, 2025. "Financial Constraints and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Equity Shocks in Capital Markets," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_675, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    23. S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Alper, Koray & Baskaya, Soner & Shi, Shuren, 2025. "How do macroprudential policies affect corporate investment? Insights from EIBIS data," EIB Working Papers 2025/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    25. Mølbak Ingholt, Marcus, 2022. "Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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