IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22941.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Ascari
  • Louis Phaneuf
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence identifies investment shocks as key driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations. However, existing New Keynesian models emphasizing these shocks counterfactually imply a negative unconditional correlation between consumption growth and investment growth, a weak positive unconditional correlation between consumption growth and output growth and anomalous profiles of cross-correlations involving consumption growth. These anomalies arise because of a short-run contractionary effect a positive investment shock on consumption. Such counterfactual co-movements are typical of the "Barro-King curse" (Barro and King 1984), wherein models with a real business cycle core must rely on technology shocks to account for the observed co-movement among output, consumption, investment, and hours. We show that two realistic additions to an otherwise standard medium scale New Keynesian model – namely, roundabout production and real per capita output growth stemming from trend growth in neutral and investment-specific technologies – can break the Barro-King curse and provide a more accurate account of unconditional business cycle comovements more generally. These two features substantially magnify the effects of neutral technology and investment shocks on aggregate fluctuations and generate a rise of consumption on impact of a positive investment shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Louis Phaneuf & Eric Sims, 2016. "Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse," NBER Working Papers 22941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22941
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22941.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, January.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Louis Phaneuf & Eric R. Sims & Jean Gardy Victor, 2015. "Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters," NBER Working Papers 21599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Liu, Zheng & Phaneuf, Louis, 2007. "Technology shocks and labor market dynamics: Some evidence and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2534-2553, November.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1, June.
    7. Guido Ascari & Louis Phaneuf & Eric Sims, 2015. "On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "Investment shocks and consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 111-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22941. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.