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Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters

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  • Louis Phaneuf
  • Eric R. Sims
  • Jean Gardy Victor

Abstract

We formulate a medium-scale DSGE model that emphasizes a strong interplay between a roundabout production structure and a working capital channel that requires firms to borrow funds to finance the costs of all their variable inputs and not just the wage bill. Despite an absence of backward-looking price and wage indexation, our model is able to account for (i) a persistent and hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock, (ii) a large and persistent response of output to a monetary policy shock, (iii) a mild "price puzzle," (iv) a procyclical price markup conditional on a monetary shock, (v) non-inertial responses of inflation to non-monetary shocks, and (vi) a negative unconditional autocorrelation of the first difference of inflation that is consistent with the data. A medium-scale model relying on backward indexation of wages and prices to past inflation fails along several of these dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Phaneuf & Eric R. Sims & Jean Gardy Victor, 2015. "Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters," NBER Working Papers 21599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    3. Khan, Hashmat & Phaneuf, Louis & Victor, Jean Gardy, 2020. "Rules-based monetary policy and the threat of indeterminacy when trend inflation is low," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 317-333.
    4. Guido Ascari & Louis Phaneuf & Eric Sims, 2016. "Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse," NBER Working Papers 22941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Phaneuf, Louis & Sims, Eric R., 2018. "On the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 56-71.
    6. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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