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The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share

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  • Cristiano Cantore
  • Filippo Ferroni
  • Miguel León-Ledesma

Abstract

The textbook New Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is procyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages during the Great Moderation period in the United States, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. We show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic NK model, but also with medium-scale NK models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where it is possible to break the direct link between the labor share and the inverse markup. Our results imply that either NK models are unable to separate the dynamics of the labor share from the markup or markups do not respond in the way NK models predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:19:y:2021:i:3:p:1592-1620.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Florin O. Bilbiie & Marc J. Melitz, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 28258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Matteo G. Richiardi & Luis Valenzuela, 2024. "Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(1), pages 66-101, March.
    5. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    6. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    7. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    8. Bilbiie, F. O. & Trabandt, M., 2023. "Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2369, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2024. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    10. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
    11. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Price, Simon & Petrova, Katerina, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23320, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    12. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina, 2021. "Wages and inflation in Mexican manufacturing. A two-period comparison: 1994-2003 and 2007-2016," MPRA Paper 109555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Greg Kaplan & Piotr Zoch, 2020. "Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work," Working Papers 2020-09, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    15. Fritsche, Jan Philipp & Steininger, Lea, 2022. "The Labor Share is a Catalyst for Monetary Policy - Two Million Firms' Production Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 326, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    16. Laura Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2024. "Disinflations and Income Distribution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 125-173, October.
    17. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Lea Steininger, 2021. "Zooming in on Monetary Policy - The Labor Share and Production Dynamics of Two Million Firms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1967, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    20. Shiou‐Yen Chu, 2022. "Markups, inequality and monetary‐fiscal policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 367-395, September.
    21. Sekyu Choi & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2021. "Labour Share and Productivity Dynamics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2856-2886.
    22. Clemens, Marius & Eydam, Ulrich & Heinemann, Maik, 2023. "Inequality over the business cycle: the role of distributive shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 571-600, April.
    23. Lenney, Jamie, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission, the labour share and HANK models," Bank of England working papers 960, Bank of England.
    24. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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