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The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share

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  • Cantore, Cristiano
  • Ferroni, Filippo
  • León-Ledesma, Miguel

Abstract

The textbook New-Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is pro-cyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages and labor productivity during the Great Moderation period in the US, the Euro Area, the UK, Australia, and Canada. We show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic NK model, but with a wide variety of NK models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where the direct link between the labor share and the markup can be broken.

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  • Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & León-Ledesma, Miguel, 2019. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," CEPR Discussion Papers 13551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13551
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    Cited by:

    1. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2020. "A note on labor share, price markup and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    3. Matteo Richiardi & Luis Valenzuela, 2019. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Labour Share," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 166, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    4. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    5. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    6. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2020. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," EIEF Working Papers Series 2009, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    7. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
    8. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Price, Simon & Petrova, Katerina, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23320, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    9. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina, 2021. "Wages and inflation in Mexican manufacturing. A two-period comparison: 1994-2003 and 2007-2016," MPRA Paper 109555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Greg Kaplan & Piotr Zoch, 2020. "Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work," Working Papers 2020-09, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    12. Lea Steininger & Jan Philipp Fritsche, 2022. "The Labor Share is a Catalyst for Monetary Policy - Two Million Firms' Production Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp326, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    13. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Lea Steininger, 2021. "Zooming in on Monetary Policy - The Labor Share and Production Dynamics of Two Million Firms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1967, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    16. Laura Gómez-Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2020. "Disinflations and income distribution," Documentos CEDE 018481, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE.
    17. Sekyu Choi & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2021. "Labour Share and Productivity Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2856-2886.
    18. Marius Clemens & Ulrich Eydam & Maik Heinemann, 2020. "Inequality over the Business Cycle – The Role of Distributive Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1852, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Lenney, Jamie, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission, the labour share and HANK models," Bank of England working papers 960, Bank of England.
    20. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Share; monetary policy shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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