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The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Broadbent, Ben
  • Di Pace, Federico
  • Drechsel, Thomas
  • Harrison, Richard
  • Tenreyro, Silvana

Abstract

The UK economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel UK macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods induces a temporary “sweet spot†for tradable producers. Economic activity in the tradable sector expands in the short run, while the non-tradable sector contracts. Aggregate output, consumption and investment growth decelerate.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2026. "The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 21019, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21019
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    1. The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-09-29 01:05:34

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    2. Fetzer, Thiemo & Wang, Shizhou, 2020. "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1280, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Peydró, José-Luis & Rodriguez-Tous, Francesc & Tripathy, Jagdish & Uluc, Arzu, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Cycles and Distributional Effects: Evidence from the UK," EconStor Preprints 223303, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    6. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mistak, Jakub & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2021. "Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    8. Renato Faccini & Edoardo Palombo, 2019. "News Uncertainty in Brexit U.K," Discussion Papers 1921, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Garcia-Macia, Daniel & Korosteleva, Julia, 2025. "Tracing productivity growth channels in the UK," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    10. Alabrese, Eleonora & Edenhofer, Jacob & Fetzer, Thiemo & Wang, Shizhuo, 2020. "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence as of 2026," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 486, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    11. Margarita Rubio, 2024. "Macroprudential policies and Brexit: A welfare analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1246-1267, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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