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Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK

Author

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  • Peydró, José-Luis

    (Imperial College London)

  • Rodriguez-Tous, Francesc

    (Cass Business School)

  • Tripathy, Jagdish

    (Bank of England)

  • Uluc, Arzu

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Macroprudential regulators worldwide have introduced regulations to limit household leverage in light of existing evidence which suggests that high leverage is associated with household distress during crisis. We analyse the distributional effects of such a macroprudential policy on mortgage and house price cycles. For identification, we exploit the universe of UK mortgages and a 15%-limit imposed in 2014 on lenders — not households — for high loan-to-income ratio (LTI) mortgages. Despite some regulatory arbitrage (eg increases in LTV and average loan size), more-constrained lenders issue fewer high-LTI mortgages. Partial substitution by less-constrained lenders leads to overall credit contraction to low-income borrowers in local-areas more exposed to constrained-lenders, lowering house price growth. Following the Brexit referendum (which led to house-price correction), the 2014-policy strongly implies — via lower pre-correction debt — better house prices and mortgage defaults during an episode of house price correction.

Suggested Citation

  • Peydró, José-Luis & Rodriguez-Tous, Francesc & Tripathy, Jagdish & Uluc, Arzu, 2020. "Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK," Bank of England working papers 866, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0866
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    Cited by:

    1. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    2. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Martín, Diego Vila, 2021. "Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey," Working Paper Series 2567, European Central Bank.
    4. Calani, Mauricio & Paillacar, Manuel, 2022. "The pass-through of loan-loss-provisioning on mortgage lending: Evidence from a regulatory change," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Bridges, Jonathan & Green, Georgina & Joy, Mark, 2021. "Credit, crises and inequality," Bank of England working papers 949, Bank of England.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2021. "The household effects of mortgage regulation," Working Papers No 07/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Bologna, Pierluigi & Cornacchia, Wanda & Galardo, Maddalena, 2022. "Release of a liquidity regulation: What do we learn for credit and house prices?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; mortgages; credit cycles; inequality; house prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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