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Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default

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  • Andreas Fuster
  • Paul S. Willen

Abstract

This paper studies the treatment effect of monthly payment size on mortgage default, using a sample of adjustable-rate loans that experienced large payment reductions thanks to the recent low interest rate environment. Payment size has an economically large effect on repayment behavior; for instance, cutting the required payment in half reduces the delinquency hazard by about 55 percent. Importantly, the link between payment size and delinquency is equally strong for borrowers that are significantly underwater on their mortgage. Relying on payment reductions for identification circumvents the selection concerns due to prepayments that would be associated with rate increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:167-91
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20150007
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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