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Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique

This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of "structural" parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal policy regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply. Imperfect aggregation manifests itself through preference shocks in the estimated representative-agent model. Preference and technology parameter estimates are not invariant with respect to policy changes. As a result, the bias in the representative-agent model's policy predictions is large compared to the length of predictive intervals that reflect parameter uncertainty.

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File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_556.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 556.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:556
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.

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  1. Sungbae An & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2009. "Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 29-54, July.
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  10. Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
  11. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2003. "From individual to aggregate labor supply : a quantitative analysis based on a heterogeneous agent macroeconomy," Working Paper 03-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  12. Cogley Timothy & Yagihashi Takeshi, 2010. "Are DSGE Approximating Models Invariant to Shifts in Policy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-33, October.
  13. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
  14. Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Business Cycles In The Equilibrium Model Of Labor Market Search And Self‐Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 399-432, 05.
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  16. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte & Luca Sessa, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 652, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  18. Cho, Jang-Ok, 1995. "Ex post heterogeneity and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 533-551, April.
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  20. Makoto Nakajima, 2006. "Business Cycles in the Equilibrium Model of Labor Search and Self-Insurance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 426, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
  22. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2007. "Heterogeneity and Aggregation: Implications for Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1939-1956, December.
  23. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Aysegul Sahin, 2008. "Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor, Incomplete Markets, and Labor Market Frictions," NBER Working Papers 13871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
  25. Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
  26. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Expectation Effects of Regimes Shifts in Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  27. John C. Williams, 2013. "Monetary policy in uncertain times," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan21.
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